089
FXUS63 KIWX 010520
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
120 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Somewhat slower trends for arrival of showers and isolated
  thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening. Heavy rain will
  be the main concern.

- Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday
  through Thursday.

- Large temperature gradients possible due to precipitation and
  clouds Saturday and later this week, but overall still near or
  above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Next 12 to 24 hours will likely be dry for many areas with
models continue to trend somewhat slower with onset of
increasing moisture and lift. Some concern that best influx of
moisture may not arrive till closer to 00Z Sun as the upper low
and associated sfc reflection draw closer. Have slowed onset
considerably through 18Z but maintained likely or categorical
pops during the afternoon and evening hours. Thunder chances
still looking rather bleak but still maintained a mention. As
mentioned by the overnight forecaster, highs tomorrow will be
highly dependent on how fast the rain and clouds arrives. Have
increased temps slightly westward but not getting to crazy at
this point.

Limited ridging will move in for Sunday and at least the first
half of Monday before additional waves move towards the region
with chances for showers and maybe a few storms once again.
Confidence is low on how these chances evolve with timing of
specific waves still varying in models. Greatest chances still
reside with the main upper level low in the Plains that will
deepen and move east towards the region mid week. No significant
changes have been made in the forecast at this time due to the
timing challenges noted.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 120 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Shortwave trough will lift through the area later today with
rapidly deteriorating aviation conditions this evening. Adjusted
timing of heaviest precip/thunder chances later as low level dry
air will likely be slower to erode than most guidance suggests.
Thunder chances also appear very minimal given poor lapse rates
and very little MUCAPE, but will hold onto a brief VCTS mention
for now. It could be removed in later forecasts. Concensus
guidance suggests IFR ceilings at FWA and LIFR at SBN Saturday
night. Held ceilings a bit higher for now as models have tended
to go too low with ceilings in the 18-30 hour time range.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...AGD