Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 190257

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
957 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018


Issued at 953 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

I opted to expand the winter weather advisory to include more
central counties. Models fairly uniform with wrapping moisture
back eastward across more of my central counties tonight/Monday
AM. Also already have picked up 2-3 inches of snow east of
Bismarck due to a persistent band of precipitation across eastern
Burleigh/Kidder/northern Stutsman counties this evening, which is
finally showing signs of dissipating/moving more east. Another
factor is current wet roads from Bismarck east will likely freeze
making for hazardous travel later tonight and during the Monday
morning commute.

Issued at 634 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

No major changes with this forecast package. Headlines remain
valid. POPs were adjusted the most to account for latest radar
imagery, specifically the band of precipitation lifting north
across my central counties. Otherwise radar is filling in
southwest as snow develops northward, which the inherited forecast
has well depicted.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

The Winter Weather Advisory appears on target for tonight through
tomorrow morning. Light snow/freezing drizzle continues to develop
across southwest North Dakota this afternoon. Freezing drizzle
will give way to all snow by later this evening.

The consensus among forecast models is to focus the highest snow
amounts across western and north central North Dakota. The latest
trends shift the heaviest axis a bit further west and place it
between Beach and Glen Ullin. Three to five inches of snow, with
isolated six inches seem likely across the Advisory area.

Heaviest snow amounts are expected between 6 pm and midnight
across western North Dakota, and midnight and 6 am across north
central North Dakota.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Light snow is possible Tuesday with the passing of a quick upper
level wave. Wednesday and Thursday look dry and milder with a
ridge building in over the central US. Highs are expected to
reach into the lower 40s southwest and 30s elsewhere.

By the end of the week into the weekend, a large and potent
negatively tilted upper low over the northwest US will send some
shortwave energy into the Northern Plains. Current trends suggest
another opportunity for accumulating snow Friday through Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)

Issued at 634 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Areas of LIFR cigs and vis will continue in fog over the area.
LIFR to IFR cigs and vis will persist/increase in coverage
overnight into Monday as snow spreads north and east over western
and central ND.


Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ Monday for



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