Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 150458

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1158 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

High clouds and cool temperatures continue for us on the north
side of the Central Plains/Upper Midwest storm system. A few radar
returns have been approaching our far southeastern counties, but
nothing much in that area reaching the ground. The cirrus shield
should start to pull further south and east tonight as the low
pressure system slowly moves into the mid Mississippi Valley.
Some clearing will be possible in our northwestern CWA later
tonight, so temps will be dropping into the teens in that area
with 20s further east. Kept some low POPs going in the far
southeastern counties for any snow brushing our area as the system
lifts northeastward, but little if any accumulation expected.

Sunday will see fairly similar conditions to today with slightly
more sunshine in the west as the cirrus shield will be mostly over
our MN counties. Continue to keep some low POPs in the far eastern
tier as the system lifts out, although the models have been
trending further east. Highs should be similar to today and mainly
in the 30s, maybe a couple of degrees warmer in the west where
more sun will be available.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Some light snow may fall in central northern Minnesota Sunday night.
Model guidance only has a small amount of QPF in the area so little
to no accumulation is expected. An upper ridge and surface high
pressure settle in for Monday into Tuesday. The next system will
move in late Tuesday into Wednesday but there is still timing and
impacts disagreement between models. The GFS takes the upper low
farther north and then east than the ECMWF. This affects the
moisture expected in eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota.
The ECMWF provides little or no QPF while the GFS provides light to
moderate QPF with the highest totals in eastern North Dakota. What
precipitation that does fall will have a diurnal impact with rain
during the day and snow at night. With this model variability this
is still a low confidence event. Another upper ridge and surface
high pressure move in after the midweek system brining a return to
quiet weather.

Temperatures during this period continue to be below normal but
warmer than last week with widespread highs in the mid to upper
forties for much of the week. Near the end of the next week highs
look to be in the upper forties to low fifties with lows near
freezing. Normal highs this time of year are in the mid to high
fifties with lows in the low to mid thirties.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period across
eastern ND and northwest MN. Light snow is possible at KBJI
through early Sun morning, but confidence was too low to include
in TAFs at this time. Northeast winds have finally decreased to
12kt or less, and prevailing winds should generally remain 10-12kt
or less the reminder of the TAF period as surface high pressure
continues to build east.




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