Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 241651

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1151 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Issued at 1150 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Expired Winter Weather Advisory earlier and issued Special Weather
Statement for patchy freezing drizzle in our far NW CWA.
Radar/obs trend support improving conditions across our area.
Lower vis continues to be reported at Langdon, and this area is
where deeper lower level moisture was shown in higher res
guidance. Forcing within saturation is likely localized, but
patchy freezing drizzle still can`t be ruled out based on past
obs/reports. Signal diminishes rapidly as afternoon goes on, so
SPS was set to expire at 19Z.

UPDATE Issued at 643 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Travel impacts continue across the area as light snow lingers in
the valley and with some freezing drizzle developing to the west.
Winter weather advisory has been extended until 11am and will
adjust the current forecast to match current radar trends. Impacts
will lessen by late morning as road temps increase and melt icy


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Challenges over the next 36 hours will be winter weather impacts
from departing system this morning to the next round of
precipitation beginning early Sunday morning. Aforementioned
departing system continues to bring light snow to the immediate
valley and west central Minnesota. Dry easterly flow continues to
limit eastward extent of the snow from east of Hallock to
Crookston to Detroit Lakes. In the wake of the light snow freezing
drizzle and or reduced visibilities down to around 3 miles is
occuring across much of central and northeastern ND. Will continue
winter weather advisory with travel impacts from slippery roads
as road temps remains just below freezing across the region.

A break in precipitation is in store for today through midnight
before the next round is of snowfall tonight. Temps will struggle
into the mid 30s today with cloud cover and a raw southeast wind
at 10 to 20 mph. Between 06 and 18Z Sunday a band of intense snowfall
is expected to develop as strong frontogenetical forcing lifts
across northeastern ND. Given the time of day snowfall intensity
will overcome any warm road surfaces and will allow accumulation.
Within the strongest forcing and qpf there should be no change
over to rain during the late morning or early afternoon however on
the edges of the band a rain snow mix will be possible and could
create a tight gradient along the eastern edge of the
precipitation, as such if current placement and timing come to
fruition that would impact the Grand Forks area proper Sunday
noontime. Timing and placement of the band will be watched and
monitored over the next 24 hours. Models are producing upwards a
half inch within the strongest forcing across NE ND into the
extreme NW tip of MN which will bring 2 to 5 inches within the
Valley City to Langdon to Hallock triangle with a narrow axis of
higher amounts expected.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

A wintry mix of rain, freezing rain or snow is possible Sunday night
into Monday morning, trending toward all rain Monday afternoon. The
greatest impacts on driving conditions will most likely be during
the Monday morning commute, when slick roads are possible. A drier
and warmer airmass arrives by Tuesday, with temps ranging from the
mid 30s to mid 40s Wednesday. Although there are some minor timing
differences with a mid week wave moving across the northern tier,
models have trended toward increased chances for light snow,
compared to 24 hours ago. Best energy will be over srn Canada.
Models then transition to NW flow aloft and are out-of-phase enough
that timing waves and associated precip will be a challenge, but
there should be some brief periods of light precipitation in the
Thursday through Sunday timeframe. Temperatures in this timeframe
will be cooler than seasonal norms.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 643 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Low stratus with light snow and fog and or freezing drizzle or
drizzle expected this morning at all TAF sites except BJI. MVFR
CIGS and or VSBY will improve around the noon hour with exception
at DVL which may hang on to MVFR conditions all day.




LONG TERM...Speicher
AVIATION...JK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.