Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 170857

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
357 AM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Rain and snow highlight the short term.

Precipitation will be slow to move in and saturate the lower
levels today. The latest guidance indicates precipitation will
start across western North Dakota after noon. Road and surface
temperatures will support light rain across much of western and
central North Dakota through the afternoon and early evening hours.
Forecast soundings show rain changing to wet snow by this evening
as temperatures plummet below freezing throughout the entire
column with a saturated snow growth zone.

Chances for snow will continue across central North Dakota
into early Wednesday morning. Any snow lingering into Wednesday
afternoon will likely switch back over to light rain as
temperatures warm into the upper 30s and lower 40s. Expect only a
trace to half an inch of snow across western North Dakota, with 1
to 2 inches possible across most of central North Dakota before
the region dries out Wednesday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Dry conditions will prevail across western and central North
Dakota for Wednesday night through Friday night as high pressure
builds in from the west. This will allow for strong mid April
sunshine to warm the region well into the 40s and lower 50s on
Thursday and Friday with rapid snowmelt expected for any areas
that still have some snow on the ground.

Another low pressure system over the four-corners region will
move eastward on Friday, giving southern North Dakota slight
chances of light snow Friday morning before quickly changing over
to light rain as temperatures warm to well above freezing. Slight
chances for light rain across the far south will continue through
Friday night. Split synoptic-scale flow with some ridging over
the state will dominate on Saturday and Sunday, making for drier
and warmer conditions. In fact, western North Dakota will flirt
with 60 degrees on Saturday and Sunday, before a slight cooldown
on Monday into the lower 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Hazards to aviation include moderate wind shear from surface to
2000 agl KISN-KDIK 06-12z, and MVFR/IFR conditions KISN-KMOT-
KBIS-KDIK in ceilings and rain/snow. At 05Z/17th a developing
low pressure area centered across southeast Montana/NC Wyoming is
forecast to move to western North Dakota by Tuesday afternoon.
The low will be the focus for deteriorating conditions to MVFR/IFR
after 20Z KISN-KDIK in rain/snow and MVFR KMOT-KBIS in rain/snow after




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