Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 181924

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
224 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

Remnants of the convective system are exiting the north central
this afternoon while some residual showers remain across the
Montana/North Dakota border. Will trend both of these areas down
this afternoon and evening.

Expect gradual clearing skies to begin northwest this evening and
spread south and east overnight. Used teh NBM guidance for
minimum temperatures Saturday as this has been the best guidance
day one mins locally. This gave patchy frost across much of
northwest and north central North Dakota after midnight tonight
through Saturday morning where lows ranged from 34 to 37.

Soundings and the cam models do not support much fog tonight so
did not add to the forecast. This will be monitored though.

Mainly sunny skies are forecast Saturday as clearing extends
through the region. It will be a tad breezy across the southeast.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

The extended forecast will see a slow warming trend. Dry weather
is forecast Sunday and Monday followed by scattered showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday through Saturday. The broad h500 flow has an
h500 low over the western CONUS with southwest flow aloft over the
northern plains. This will eventually transition to northwest
flow after the upper low swings east. This will bring more
chances for showers and thunderstorms, especially across the west
where its has been dry up until now.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

The taf period begins with ifr/mvfr cigs and mvfr vsbys in light
rain at KDIK/KJMS. Cigs/vsbys will slowly improve across the
northern terminals (KISN/KMOT) by 00z Saturday, then over the
southern terminals (KDIK/KBIS/KJMS) between 04z and 09z Saturday.
Vfr cigs/vsbys expected thereafter with gusty northeasterly winds
between 15kt and 25kt Saturday from KBIS to KJMS.


Frost Advisory from 3 AM CDT /2 AM MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/
Saturday for NDZ001>005-009>013-017>021.



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