Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 251153

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
653 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Issued at 646 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Added a mention of showers and thunderstorms behind the cold front
for this evening as well depicted by the CAMs through the 10 UTC
HRRR with steep lapse rates. Rather thick mid to upper level cloud
cover continues to overspread northwest North Dakota this
morning, and will continue to spread across the remainder of the
area through the day as well depicted by the NBM. This is the
limiting factor for critical fire weather conditions to be reached
today. Will continue to closely monitor conditions, however, a
Red Flag Warning is not warranted at this time due to the
uncertainty of afternoon temperatures and relative humidity with
cloud cover.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Near critical fire weather conditions possible.

A cold front will move from northwest to southeast across the State.
Gusty winds of around 35 mph will accompany the front along with
false hope for rain in the northwest this evening. Current BUFKIT
soundings in the northwest indicate ample dry air in the low/mid
levels, squashing chances for rain. Minimum RH values in the upper
teens and lower 20s are expected in southwest, central, and north
central areas. The SPC Fire Weather Outlook highlights the far
northeast as an elevated risk. However, afternoon cloud cover adds
uncertainty to the minimum RH and high temperature forecasts. Thus
opted not to go with a red flag warning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

A strong ridge will begin building into North Dakota on Thursday,
with the ridge axis located over central North Dakota by Sunday.
This will usher in the warmest air of the year so far, with high
temperatures in the lower 80s in many spots across western and
central North Dakota.

Fire weather concerns are marginal for Saturday and Sunday, as
relative humidities and winds look favorable.

The latest suite of global models suggests chances for
rain return later Sunday night through Tuesday morning, as an
upper level low moves through the state. A few thunderstorms
will be possible as instability, moisture and lift look to be
sufficient in some spots.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Strong southwest winds with gusts of 25-30 kts across western and
central North Dakota today. A cold front will enter northwest
North Dakota late this afternoon and move southeast through the
evening. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are expected
behind the front. VFR conditions outside of precipitation are
expected for the 12 UTC TAF cycle.




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