601
AXNT20 KNHC 081823
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Jul 8 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 34W from 17N
southward, and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered showers are
observed from 02N to 05N between 32W and 40W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 51W from 18N southward,
and moving west around 15 kt . No significant convection or
shower activity is noted with this wave.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 69W from the eastern
Hispaniola southward to western Venezuela. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are occurring over the central Venezuela.

Another tropical wave is near 90W from the eastern Bay of Campeche
southward across southern Mexico into the East Pacific. It is
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is found
near this feature. This wave is gradually catching up with
another wave farther west over southern Mexico, and they might
merge later on.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Mauritania
near El Mamghar, then reaches southwestward passing just south of
the Cabo Verde Islands to 05N36W. An ITCZ continues west-
northwestward from 05N36W to 09N50W, then westward from 09N52W to
north of the Colombia-Venezuela border at 10N60W. Scattered
moderate convection i is flaring up south of the monsoon trough
from 06N to 11N between the Senegal-Guiana-Sierra Leone coast, and
also just west of the ITCZ from 09N to 12N between 57W and 63W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
similar conditions across the Caribbean waters near Panama and
Costa Rica.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

An elongated upper-level low across the western Gulf is
triggering scattered moderate convection over the western Bay of
Campeche and near the Texas-Louisana coast. Otherwise, a surface
ridge runs westward from a 1020 mb high at the northeastern Gulf
to near Tampico, Mexico. This feature is supporting light to
gentle winds with 1 to 2 ft seas at the northeastern and east-
central Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 2 to 4
ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the high and associated trough will prevail
across the Gulf through Sat. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will
pulse along and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula each
afternoon and evening as a trough develops inland daily and then
drifts westward over the Bay of Campeche at night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A large, elongated upper-level low is producing widely scattered
moderate convection at the central basin, and near the Windward
Passage. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional
convection in the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong ENE to E winds
and seas of 7 to 9 ft exist at the south-central basin. Gentle to
moderate NE to E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted at the western
basin. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds with seas at 5 to 7 ft
prevail elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic
ridge and the Colombian low will continue to support pulsing fresh
to strong trades and rough seas across the south-central
Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh to strong E winds are
expected in the Gulf of Honduras, mainly at night, through the
end of the week. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are
expected in the eastern basin, while gentle to moderate winds and
slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Enhanced by an upper-level through in the vicinity, two surface
troughs are producing scattered heavy showers and isolated
thunderstorms east of Florida north of 24N between 69W and 79W.
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at
the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. A
1028 mb Bermuda High is supporting gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas
north of 26N between 45W and 67W. To the west, moderate with
locally fresh SE winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft are present north of
26N between 67W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. Farther
south from 18N to 26N between 67W and the Great Bahama Bank, fresh
with locally strong SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted. For the
tropical Atlantic from 12N to 26N between 35W and the Lesser
Antilles, and north of 26N between 35W and 45W, gentle to moderate
NNe to ENE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft exist. For the remainder of
the Atlantic west of 35W, gentle with locally moderate SE to S
winds and 2 to 4 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will continue
to build westward toward Florida and the Bahamas through the
week. This pattern will support gentle to moderate winds, except
for fresh to strong E to SE winds off the northern coast of
Hispaniola through Sat night.

$$

Chan