Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
000
AXNT20 KNHC 150558
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Mar 15 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Significant Swell:
Large NW swell is propagating across the central Atlantic. Seas
of 12 to 16 ft along with moderate to fresh W to NW winds are
generally north of 26N between 35W and 52W. As this swell
gradually subsides and retreats northeastward tonight through
Friday, seas in this area are expected to drop below 12 ft by
Friday evening.

SW Caribbean Gale Warning:
Tight pressure gradient between a 1007 mb Colombian Low and a 1022
mb Bermuda High will support fresh to strong NE to E winds across
the south-central Caribbean and near the ABC Islands through this
weekend. Local effects created by the mountain peaks nearby will
further enhance pressure gradient to support 30 to 40 kt NE to E
winds off the coast near Barranquilla during the nighttime and
early morning hours tonight and Fri night. Seas under these winds
will peak between 10 and 12 ft.

Mariners need to monitor these hazardous marine conditions and
plan their route accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas
and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane
Center at websites:
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of
Guinea-Bissau and Guinea, then reaches southward to 05N16W. An
ITCZ continues southwestward from 05N16W to beyond 00S22W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted up to 65 nm along either
side of the ITCZ. No significant convection is seen near the
monsoon trough.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1021 mb high over the
Florida Big Bend area to near Tampico, Mexico. Enhanced by cooler
nighttime temperatures, moist southeasterly winds are inducing
patchy fog across the northwestern and north-central Gulf.
Visibility in these areas can be reduced to as low as 2 nm. Fresh
to strong southeasterly winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are present at
the northwestern and south-central Gulf, including the eastern Bay
of Campeche. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas are noted at
the northeastern and east-central Gulf. Moderate with locally
fresh southeasterly winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft prevail for the
rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate the
Gulf over the next few days. Moderate to occasionally fresh SE
winds are forecast over the majority of the Gulf through Fri.
Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near and northwest of
the Yucatan Peninsula during the nighttime and early morning
hours through Sun night. A weak cold front will enter the
northwestern Gulf Fri and then slide eastward. A stronger cold
front will move across the area late this weekend into early next
week, resulting in an increase in winds and seas behind this
second front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about an ongoing
Gale Warning.

A 1022 mb Bermuda High near 29N71W continues to support a fair
trade-wind pattern across the entire Caribbean Sea. Outside the
Gale Warning area, fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas at 6 to
9 ft are seen at the central basin, Gulf of Honduras and near the
Windward Passage. Moderate with locally fresh E to ESE winds and
3 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the Bermuda High will gradually shift eastward,
while supporting fresh to strong winds across the south-central
Caribbean the next several days. Winds will pulse to fresh to
locally strong near the Gulf of Honduras, the Windward Passage,
and south of Hispaniola through the upcoming weekend and then
decrease slightly early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section at the beginning about
Significant Swell.

A surface trough stretches southwestward from the central Atlantic
at 31N35W to 22N52W, then continues westward as a weak shear line
to near the southeast Bahamas. Widely scattered showers are found
up to 50 nm along either side of the trough, while patchy showers
are seen up to 60 nm north of the shear line. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Other than the Significant Swell mentioned in the Special Features
section, gentle to moderate SE to W to NW winds and seas at 9 to
11 ft in moderate to large NW swell exist north of 18N between
30W 60W. Farther southwest, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 4
to 6 ft seas are found from 20N to 25N between 60W and the
Bahamas. To the north, a 1022 mb Bermuda High near 29N71W is
promoting light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft in mixed
moderate swells are present north of 25N between 60W and the
Georgia- Florida east coast. Near the Canary Islands, light to
gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed moderate swells are
evident north of 21N between the Africa coast and 30W. Near the
Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate NNE to NE winds and seas at
5 to 7 ft in moderate northerly swell dominate from 08N to 21N
between the central Africa coast and 40W. For the tropical
Atlantic from the Equator to 18N between 40W and the Lesser
Antilles, gentle to moderate with locally fresh ENE to E winds
with 6 to 9 ft seas in mixed moderate to large swells are found.
Light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate
swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High will persist
across the western Atlantic during the next few days. Very rough
to high seas east of 52W will gradually subside from west to east
through Fri. The Bermuda High is anticipated to shift eastward
this weekend, allowing a cold front to move off the southeast US
coast early next week. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will
follow behind this front off northeastern Florida and over the
western Atlantic, north of 28N. As the front pushes further
eastward into the central Atlantic, conditions will improve by
midweek.

$$

Chan


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.