Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 180610
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Mar 18 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning:
A cold front currently near the Georgia-Florida border and off the
Carolinas coast will progress eastward across the western Atlantic
for the next few days. SW to NW winds near and behind this front
are expected to reach near-gale to gale-force north of 29N between
73W and 77W by late Mon night or early Tue morning. Seas in this
area will range from 9 to 12 ft. These near-gale to gale-force
winds and very rough seas will shift eastward with the cold front
to north of 29N between 63W and 67W by noon Tue. As this front
weakens Tue afternoon and evening, both winds and seas should
gradually subside.

Mariners need to monitor these hazardous marine conditions, and
plan their routes accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas
and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane
Center, at the websites:
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Sierra Leone coast
near Freetown, then runs southwestward to near 04N19W. An ITCZ
continues from 04N19W across 00S29W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted near and south of the trough from 01N to 04N
between 10W and 18W. Similar convection is occurring near and
north of the ITCZ from the Equator to 03N between 24W and 47W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends southwestward from the Florida Big Bend area
to just south of New Orleans, then continues as a stationary front
to a 1009 mb low south of Matamoros, Mexico. A surface trough is
noted south of this boundary near 27N87W. These features are
causing scattered showers and thunderstorms across the northern
Gulf. Haze and smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico is reducing
visibility down to 4 nm across the west-central and southwestern
Gulf. Otherwise, a surface ridge extends southwestward from
central Florida to south of Tampico, Mexico. Moderate to fresh NE
to SE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are present at the northwestern
and south- central Gulf, including the eastern Bay of Campeche.
Gentle to moderate NE to SE to S winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail
for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the aforementioned frontal boundary will become
a cold front completely, and reach from near Tampa Bay, Florida
to near Veracruz, Mexico Mon morning before exiting the basin on
Tue morning. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected
behind the front tonight through Tue morning. Low pressure may
form over the western Gulf on Thu, then tack east-northeast
toward the northeastern Gulf by Fri, dragging a cold front across
the basin. Expect increasing winds and seas with this next
frontal system along with possible numerous showers and
thunderstorms.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A trade-wind regime continues across the entire Caribbean Sea.
Fresh to strong ENE to E winds and seas at 6 to 10 ft are present
at the south-central and southeastern basin. Fresh with locally
strong ESE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are seen at the Gulf of
Honduras. Light to gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are noted near
the Cayman Islands. Moderate to fresh ENE to ESE winds with seas
at 4 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Basin.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the area near
26N will support fresh to strong trade winds across the eastern
and central Caribbean through Tue. Afterward, winds will diminish
to between moderate and fresh as a cold front moves across the
western Atlantic. This front will push southward across the
northwestern basin Tue, then reach eastern Cuba on Wed while
dissipating. Pulsing fresh to strong winds will prevail near the
coast of Colombia through Fri night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section at the beginning about an
upcoming Gale Warning.

Two surface troughs are triggering scattered showers from 20N to
25N between 52W and 56W, and from 21N to 26N between 36W and 41W.
Otherwise, the subtropical ridge associated with a 1026 mb high
near 31N31W dominates the Atlantic north of 20N. Refer to the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the
Atlantic Basin. Moderate to fresh SW winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft
are evident south of a cold front off the Carolinas, north of 27N
between 70W and the Georgia-northeast Florida coast. Fresh with
locally strong SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are found near the
southeast Bahamas. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and seas of 4
to 7 ft in moderate northerly swell exist north of 20N between 30W
and the Florida east coast. Moderate to fresh with locally strong
NNE to NE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft dominate near the Canary
Islands north of 21N between the northwest Africa coast and 30W,
and also near the Cabo Verde Islands from 12N to 21N between the
central Africa coast and 35W. For the tropical Atlantic from 04N
to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate with locally
fresh ENE to E winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are noted. Light to gentle
monsoonal winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swell
prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front will move off the
southeast U.S. coast tonight, reach from near 31N78W to northeast
Florida early on Mon. Then from near 31N70W to the Straits of
Florida Tue morning, from near Bermuda through the central Bahamas
by Tue afternoon, while weakening as it reaches from near 31N56W
to eastern Cuba by Wed morning. Fresh to strong winds and rough
seas are expected ahead and behind the front. The front will move
east of the area on Thu. High pressure in its wake will quickly
shift eastward through Fri night, allowing for fresh to strong
southerly winds to develop over the western half of the forecast
waters as low pressure tracks northeastward along a coastal front
near northeast Florida.

$$

Chan


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