Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 222143 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
443 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

A high amplitude H5 pattern was present across the CONUS
this morning. A broad trough of low pressure was located across
eastern Canada into the nern CONUS. Within this trough, three
shortwaves and a closed low were noted. The closed low was located
southeast of Cape Cod with shortwaves noted over southern Quebec,
south central Ontario and over eastern Kentucky. West of this
trough, a ridge of high pressure extended from western Texas
north into southern portions of the Northwest Territories of
Canada. West of this ridge, a closed low was noted off the swrn
coast of British Columbia. A trough extended south of this feature
with a shortwave noted approximately 500 miles west of Los
Angeles CA. Current WV imagery has a nice plume of moisture
streaming into the western third of the CONUS. This moisture
continues to ride up the western periphery of the ridge into the
northern Rockies. Across western and north central Nebraska this
afternoon, skies were mainly clear with some limited high
cloudiness drifting in from the west. Readings as of 3 PM CDT
ranged from 56 at Ainsworth to 73 at Imperial.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Tonight through Friday night...In the near term, the
main forecast challenges are on Friday and center around cloudiness
and its impacts on temperatures in the east, and the threat for
thunderstorms in the west Friday afternoon. Ridging aloft will begin
to transition east overnight with its axis oriented along the
Missouri river by daybreak Friday. Hts aloft will fall on Friday as
a lead disturbance, associated with the west coast trough,
approaches the central Rockies. With HTS aloft falling overnight, a
surface trough of low pressure will begin to deepen along the front
ranges of Colorado and Wyoming. This will lead to increased
southeasterly winds, resulting in low level moisture advection and
the development of low cloudiness overnight. Both the GFS and NAM12
solns pull low cloudiness west Friday morning with the GFS being
more aggressive with the leading edge of the stratus development.
The NAM pushes low cloudiness as far west as highway 83, while
the GFS is about 25 miles farther west with the leading edge of
the low clouds. Surprisingly though, the MAV guidance is actually
warmer on highs Friday for North Platte compared to the NAM12
soln. This being in light of skies being overcast the entire day
with the GFS compared to through mid morning with the NAM12 soln.
The inherited forecast has highs in the middle 60s for North
Platte tomorrow, with 50s in the cloud cover in eastern portions
of the forecast area. These highs will be scaled back somewhat, as
eastern areas will end up seeing limited, if any sun tomorrow.
Across the west including the eastern panhandle and western
sandhills, abundant sun will allow temps to reach the middle to
upper 60s. With the approaching shortwave Friday afternoon,
steepening lapse rates, will lead to an increased threat for
isolated thunderstorms during peak heating. Moisture will remain
meager tomorrow with dew points in the lower to middle 40s which
should limit the severe threat in western Nebraska. Into the
evening hours further east, a threat for thunderstorms continues.
These storms should be elevated in nature, given the stable,
cloudy boundary layer. However, strong instability exists in the
H800 to H85 layer Friday evening in the eastern CWA lending
support for convection. A strong to low end severe storm may be
possible with hail being the main threat. This is all conditional
on storm initiation in the warm sector early on in northern

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Saturday through Sunday night...The upper level disturbance
responsible for shras/tsras Friday night will slide east Saturday
morning. On its heels, a second upper level disturbance will
deepen across the intermountain west. This will strengthen a lee
side trough Saturday increasing southeasterly winds across the
forecast area for Saturday into Sunday. Low clouds are expected to
persist in the east coupled with a back door cold front, which
will be anchored across the eastern forecast area Saturday. This
will lead to a wide range in high temperatures ranging from the
mid 40s in the northeast to mid 60s in the southwest. The lead
shortwave will enter the high plains Sunday. This will initiate
showers and thunderstorms across the west late in the day Sunday,
with the threat shifting eastward Sunday evening. Highs Sunday
will vary widely once again across western and north central
Nebraska, with readings ranging from the middle 40s in the
northeast to the lower 60s in the southwest. By Sunday evening, a
broad area of showers and thunderstorms will lift across
northwestern and northern Nebraska. Some wet snow may be possible
overnight as lows hit the lower to middle 30s.

Monday through Thursday...Western and north central Nebraska will
be under the influence of a northern stream trough next week.
This will lead to cooler than normal temperatures and a limited
threat for precipitation. Highs will generally be in the 40s with
50s returning next Thursday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 443 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

MVFR cigs are expected to develop this evening across nrn Neb and
Friday morning across Srn Neb. Thunderstorms are possible 21z-00z

East winds this evening should cause MVFR cigs to form. The area
of concern is generally along and north of highway 2. MVFR cigs
are expected to form after sunrise Friday along and south of
Interstate 80. MVFR cigs will likely persist throughout the day
Friday east of highway 83.

Isolated strong to scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop Friday afternoon west of highway 61 and south of
Interstate 80.




SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...CDC is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.