Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 180825

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
325 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Issued at 324 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

At 08z...Surface low pressure was centered over northeast Kansas
while surface high pressure extended across the Central Rockies.
A negatively tilted upper low was centered over eastern portions of
north central Nebraska. An area of light to moderate snow continued
for areas near and east of Valentine thorugh Ainsworth and Burwell.
Lingering light snow ending over the Sandhills to the west. Northwest
winds have developed across western Nebraska with gusts over 30 kts
occurring at North Platte. Temperatures ranged from the lower
30s northeast to the upper 30s southwest.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

An upper low will move across central Iowa into northern Illinois by
late afternoon. The negative tilt of the upper system will keep
chance to likely pops for light snow to begin 12z this morning east
of Valentine through Burwell, with a slight chance/chance of
rain or snow east of Springview through O`Neill at 18z, moving east
and ending by 21z. Additional snowfall up to an inch could occur
across Boyd and northeast holt county this morning. Colder air
drawn in on the backside of this system indicated by the models,
with -4C at O`Neill at 21z, contrasted to near 7C at Imperial.
Therefore highs to range from 39 at O`Neill to 59 at Imperial.
Windy today, especially across the southern half of the forecast
area, where northwest winds 25 to 35 mph this morning until mid
afternoon. Breezy across northern Nebraska.

For tonight, an upper ridge will build into western Nebraska. A
ridge of surface high pressure will also build south across central
and eastern Nebraska. Clearing skies this evening in the northeast,
only to expect stratus to develop westward across the northeastern
half of the forecast area after midnight. Western areas to remain
mostly clear this evening, followed by increasing high clouds after
midnight. lows tonight once again below freezing, from the mid 20s
northeast to near 30 far southwest.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Quiet weather continues on Thursday as surface high pressure remains
settled across the central US. Expect mild temperatures as well on
Thursday with most locations seeing highs in the 50s and low 60s. A
few locations across the O`Neill area are only expected to rise into
the upper 40s.

Active weather returns for the end of the week and into the first
part of the weekend. An upper level low will move off the central
Rockies and drift eastward across the central Plains. This upper low
will result in surface precipitation across much of western and
north central Nebraska on Friday into Saturday morning. This system
continues to trend warmer than originally expected with 850 mb
temperatures in the 2 to 8 degree range. This warm system will bring
mostly rain to the forecast area. Will hold onto just a brief chance
of some rain/snow mix early Saturday morning. Little to no
accumulations are expected at this time. Would not be surprised to
see the mention of snow to completely disappear from the forecast
over the next couple days as this system continues to trend on the
warmer side. Mostly cloudy skies on Saturday will keep temperatures
cool in the low 50s.

Dry weather returns for Saturday night through Monday morning as
weak upper level ridging occurs. Milder temperatures return with
Sunday highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Monday highs rise into the
low to mid 60s for the entire forecast area. The next precipitation
chance is on Tuesday as a weak front moves across Nebraska. Again,
with plenty of warm air, precipitation is expected to be all rain.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Local radar display shows a swath of precipitation covering much
of the area outside the southeast Panhandle moving gradually east.
Rain has changed over to snow across northwestern NEB into the
central Sandhills, elsewhere rain is predominant. Latest surface
obs show IFR ceilings in northwestern NEB and MVFR/low-end VFR
(less than 6 kft) ceilings elsewhere. Rest of tonight, precip is
expected to continue to push east moving out of southwest NEB
during the small hours. Thereafter precip is expected to affect
mainly north central NEB late tonight into early morning tomorrow.
Of which, rain will changeover to snow across the remainder of
the Sandhills and northern NEB the next couple hours. Winds will
remain elevated rest of tonight, mainly out of the northwest, with
some gusts up to 40 MPH possible across parts of southwest NEB
overnight. Looking ahead, skies will be clearing late tonight
into early tomorrow morning across southwest NEB and the eastern
Panhandle with clouds then decreasing over the Sandhills tomorrow
afternoon. Otherwise, sub-VFR ceilings are expected to linger
across parts of north central NEB during the day.




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