Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 191726

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1226 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Looking at current national radar trends system moving south over
southwest Nebraska and moving east Custer County. Looking a 3hr
pressure falls -4mb over Tulsa and +4mb at LaJunta. This pretty much
follows progged track of upper level low. Northern edge precip
staying just to the east of KBBW. Trace reported at KVTN at
midnight. With this said hrr showing that precipitation lighter
through the day. Temperatures this morning below freezing north of
highway 2 and in the mid 30s south of that. Areas of mixed
precipitation through the day and then changing to snow again this
evening drastically reducing snow amounts. Raw cool wet day across
western Nebraska today with highs in the mid to upper 30s

Upper trough moves east across the northern plains over night with
areas of snow ending over north central Nebraska through the early
morning hours. Some partial clearing over southern Nebraska through
the early morning hours. Lows in the teens where snow on ground over
the Pine Ridge and 20s over the remainder of western Nebraska.

No highlights.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

In the wake of the closed upper low, northwest flow takes over
through midweek as a ridge amplifies over the Rockies. The ridge
pushes onto the Plains, bisecting Nebraska on Friday, then breaks
down over the weekend. At the surface, a high pressure sits right
over the state on Tuesday and then slowly scoots east. The next
trough slides off the higher terrain later in the week,
accompanied by a lee side low.

Tuesday to Thursday... The building ridge aloft and downslope flow
at the low levels lead to notable WAA and mainly dry conditions. H85
temps slowly reach 0C Tue afternoon, resulting in highs near 50F SW
Neb and 40s north. The strongest push comes Thursday with H85 temps
surpassing 10C, where much of SW Neb may reach 70F given efficient
mixing and some sunshine.

Friday and beyond... Low level flow turns southerly ahead of the
ridge breakdown, pulling more moisture into the region. The heart of
the H85 thermal ridge passes south of the forecast area Friday, but
highs appear fairly similar to Thu. Maintained chc PoP Fri into the
weekend to account for shortwave passages and a sfc low/trough. The
first sfc low treks across Kansas late Friday, placing Neb in the
cool section, but temps stay warm enough for all rain. The second
low drags a cold front through the area over the weekend, which may
result in more mixed precip. However, timing and location
differences are rather significant in the model suite, hence a low
confidence forecast for that period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

The latest guidance indicates that the banded precipitation that
is currently impacting west central Nebraska will continue to
weaken as the next band forms the east central part of the state.
Timing on the break up of the banded snow is uncertain, thus will
employ a consensus approach and expect updates in the near term.
That being said, expect improving flight conditions this afternoon
for TAF sites along and west of a KLBF to KVTN line. East of this
line, expect conditions to deteriorate in the near term, but
improve later this evening. Again, forecast confidence in the
large scale is good, but timing and locational details are
uncertain. Otherwise peak gusts will remain at 20kts or less
through the forecast period.




LONG TERM...Snively
AVIATION...Jacobs is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.