Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 241132
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
632 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

The sensible weather concerns in the short term revolve around
gusts today and precipitation chances. Of which, upwards of a
half inch or more of rain will be possible over the 24 hour period
in parts of north central NEB. Otherwise, cool highs will prevail
today with readings mainly in the 40s to lower 50s, generally
about 15 to 20 degrees below seasonable values.

Latest radar display shows two areas of scattered rain showers,
across the southeast Panhandle-southwest NEB and over far north
central NEB. These two areas are all that remains wherein four
hours earlier a modest band lied from northeast CO to northwestern
NEB associated with low-level tropospheric frontogenesis that has
waned. Latest mesoanalysis shows the surface cold front has
advanced through roughly the northwestern two-thirds of the area.
Gusts 20-35 MPH are seen along and behind the front. Latest water
vapor shows an elongated upper-level trough extending from ND to
the Northern Intermountain West with a compact disturbance near
northwest SD and a second shortwave trough in southern ID.

The positive PV anomaly in southern ID will track eastward into
Central High Plains by mid afternoon. The PV anomaly will continue
to evolve slowly east wherein the upper-level trough will close
off early in the evening with the closed low positioned near
south central NEB by late tonight. The combination of large scale
forcing for ascent and lift will support likely PoPs late today-
early tonight. Early on in the day increased rain chances will be
present across southwest NEB shifting east early today. Precip
chances will diminish late tonight. Otherwise, there is potential
for gusts 25-35 MPH across western NEB today. Winds will lessen
overnight, albeit light breezes will still prevail. Highs will be
on the cool side today owing to lack of insolation and low-level
cold air advection occurring. Coolest highs in the northeast
Panhandle wherein upper 30s are anticipated with lower 50s
expected towards central NEB. Tonight lows are expected to be
slightly below seasonable values, mid 20s-30s, coldest in the
eastern Panhandle.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Northwest flow aloft will develop Thursday into Friday on the
eastern periphery of a large upper level ridge across the
Rockies. An Alberta Clipper will be caught up within flow, and
quickly dive southeast across the region Thursday. A few showers
will be possible with this system as well as gusty northwest winds
over 30 mph. Otherwise a rather chilly day with the wind as highs
climb into the upper 50s to near 60 degrees.

Upper level ridge begins to migrate eastward toward the central
plains Friday, and then crosses the area Saturday into Sunday.
This will ensure dry conditions and the warmest temperatures of
the year, with highs in the lower 70s Saturday and mid to upper
70s Sunday.

Long wave troughing then develops across the western CONUS early
next week, with flow aloft turning southwest across our region
ahead of the trough. At the low levels, southerly winds will begin
to draw some gulf moisture northward. GFS is the most ambitious
with the gulf air, and has dew points rising to near 60 degrees.
ECMWF is less moist, but still has dew points reaching the lower
50s. Appears this could be the first chance for organized
convective activity across the plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 602 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Latest radar display shows numerous rain showers across southwest
NEB into the southern and eastern Sandhills. Surface obs show
ceilings generally ranging from IFR to low-end MVFR (less than 2
kft) with a few exceptions noted. There have been some reports of
sub-VFR visibility with the more intense showers, however, these
have generally been of short duration across western NEB. Gusts
up to 30 kts have been noted in western NEB out of the northwest
early this morning as well. Rest of today, IFR-MVFR ceilings will
prevail. Otherwise, precip chances will shift east from southwest
NEB early today with the best chances more so in north central
NEB and the eastern Sandhills this afternoon and tonight.
Northwest winds will remain elevated and gusty today. While winds
will lessen some tonight, they will remain breezy out of the
north/northwest. Sub-VFR ceilings are expected to then continue
overnight.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ET
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...ET


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