Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 162334

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
634 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

System will exit the area this evening with lingering
precipitation coming to an end. Surface low will weaken across
northeast KS this evening with winds quickly decreasing across the
area. Skies will clear from the southwest, and as winds decrease,
expect some patchy fog to develop. Lows will drop into the 20 to
25 degree range at most locations, so untreated wet roads could
freeze and become slick.

Sunshine is expected Saturday as ridging aloft builds in ahead of
the next system slated to cross the area Sunday night into Monday.
Highs will be mild Saturday, but have limited the warm up for areas
that received snow.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

The main weather and forecast concern in the long term period is
the weather system anticipated to impact the region late Sunday-
Monday. Southwest flow will be in place overhead early Saturday
night with an upper-level ridge positioned across the eastern
Southern Plains into Manitoba and upstream an upper-level trough
will be over the western CONUS. Guidance remains in fair agreement
with a shortwave trough ejecting from the Four Corners region into
the Southern High Plains late Sunday and developing into a closed
low near the OK Panhandle. The closed low is then expected to
track into the Middle Mississippi Valley by Monday afternoon.
Meanwhile, guidance are in fair agreement with lee cyclogenesis
occurring across southeastern CO Sunday then moving into eastern
KS or OK Sunday night. While details are still forming, guidance
and BUFKIT thermodynamic profiles suggest less of a freezing
threat with precipitation in this event. Precipitation expected to
develop Sunday afternoon-evening then changing over to snow late
Sunday night/early Monday. Otherwise, there also appears to be a
low-end threat for thunder which was introduced to parts of
southwest NEB Sunday afternoon-evening. Precipitation is then
anticipated to end Monday evening with prelim total snowfall
amounts appearing light at this time (up to 2-3 inches in the
western Sandhills). In addition, Monday looks to hold potential
for modest gusts out of the north, peaking 30-35 MPH. Highs Monday
will be largely 10-15 degrees cooler than Sunday, mid 30s to lower

Looking ahead, northwest flow will be in place by Tuesday with an
upper-level ridge positioned across the western CONUS extending
from the far Southwest US into the Northern Intermountain West. Of
which, on the eastern periphery of the upper-level ridge Tuesday
there are some weak open waves moving through thus some low-end
chances for precip exist. Western NE is then anticipated to stay
in northwest flow through Wednesday. Thereafter the upper-level
ridge is expected to build eastward and will be positioned over
the Central Plain by early Thursday. Overall, temperatures are
expected to warm up with a general warming trend beginning
Wednesday that will continue into Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

A storm system is exiting western Nebraska. An area of light snow
will persist across southwest Nebraska including KLBF.
Visibilities near 3SM can be expected at times. The snow should
end by 03z. Areas of IFR and MVFR ceilings will continue until
06z. Overnight, skies will become mostly clear across southwest
Nebraska by 09z, and north central Nebraska by 12z. With clearing
skies, favorable conditions for patchy fog, including the KLBF and
KVTN terminals mainly from 10z-14Z. Visibilities from 3-5SM, with
patchy dense fog possible from the recent rain and snow. Will not
forecast low visibilities at this time.


Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening
for NEZ022>025-035-036-056>058.

Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for

Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM CDT Saturday for NEZ006>010.

Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for NEZ026>029.



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