Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 201136

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
636 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Low sensible weather concerns the next 24 hours with just a little
measurable rainfall expected today, mostly across portions of north
central NEB. Latest radar display shows lingering light rain showers
across portions of the Sandhills. Latest water vapor imagery shows a
weak upper flow pattern overhead with a weak low apparent over far
northeast NEB.

Cool conditions continue. Highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s, about
5 to 15 or more degrees warmer than yesterday, mainly in western
NEB. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies today will help contribute to
highs staying about 10 degrees or so below seasonable values.
Otherwise, lingering showers shrink in coverage early this morning
with rain chances tapering off across north central NEB today. Skies
become more so partly cloudy tonight with lows near seasonable
values, about mid 40s most places.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Surface high pressure will move east of the area by Monday with
return south to southeast flow developing. This will draw moist air
back north into the area, with dew points rising into the 50s. A
large closed low will be in the process of developing across CA
during this time. The first chance of thunderstorms this coming week
will be Monday night as mid level warm air advection and a healthy
southerly low level jet become established.

Southerly flow at the surface will continue Tuesday through Thursday
as the upper low shears out and moves northeast towards the northern
Rockies. As this occurs, a couple of weak shortwaves are expected to
move northeast across the area within southwest flow aloft. Hard to
pinpoint exact timing at this point, but there will likely be at
least a scattered thunderstorm chance during this time as a fairly
warm and moist environment (dew points in the lower to mid 60s)
lead to unstable conditions.

By week`s end, the sheared northern Rockies upper low will get
caught up in the westerlies and cross southern Canada. This will
drag a weak Pacific cold front southeast across the area Friday,
with the Memorial Day weekend looking dry and seasonably warm in
it`s wake.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Generally cloudy skies currently prevail with a few breaks noted
across extreme northwestern NEB with ceilings low-end VFR (less
than 7 kft) to MVFR across much of the Sandhills and southwest
NEB. Sky cover expected to be mostly cloudy today, except partly
cloudy across parts of northwestern NEB. Light rain showers will
be possible across north central NEB with chances decreasing over
the course of the day. Largely VFR conditions will be in place
across western and north central NEB tonight with skies becoming
partly cloudy.




LONG TERM...Taylor
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