Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46

FXUS63 KTOP 141134

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
634 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

The short-term forecast period will be dominated by fire weather
danger concerns.  Therefore, have issued a Red Flag warning for 18Z-
00Z time frame for much of the area.  See Fire Weather discussion
for details.

Current WV imagery suggests that a Pacific trough continues to push
frontal systems into the western CONUS.  Over the spine of the
Rockies is a sharp ridge with northwest flow over the Plains and
another deep broad trough over the northeastern CONUS.  GOES-16
channels show very dry air continues to be set up from the northern
Rockies extending down through the Gulf States.  This is leading to
continued clear skies over these areas and strong radiational
cooling taking place.  Overnight low temps will probably reach the
low 20s and upper teens in places over the forecast area, especially
along the KS river valley.

Today, expect clear skies and temps to reach the upper 60s and maybe
just over 70 especially over the Flint Hills region as slightly
deeper mixing will likely set up over those areas.  Expansive area
of high pressure will remain to the southeast of the area.  With mid
level flow over the Rockies associated with the sharp ridge,
southwesterly flow will increase through the day.  Expecting the
bulk of the afternoon to set up with gusty winds in the mid to upper
20 mph range with very low RH values, so Red Flag Warning criteria
is expected to be met during this time.  Burning will not be
recommended at all today as a result.

Overnight lows should be on the warmer side with 30s and even around
40 being maintained with a southerly breeze into the overnight

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Thursday a baroclinic zone develops across northern Kansas from east
to west across the cwa, however models are varying where exactly
this occur which will have a bearing on high temperatures. Expect
highs generally in the 60s to the north of the boundary with 70s to
the south. Also moisture increases during day on Thursday resulting
in higher relative humidity from 27 to 33 percent in the afternoon
hours. Given winds in the 12 to 17 mph range with some gusts near
25 mph in the afternoon will keep elevated fire danger a concern.

Precipitation chances increase Thursday night as isentropic lift,
moisture transport and increasing forcing for ascent occur as a mid
level trough moves east into the Plains. Elevated instability is
present after mid evening Thursday, then decreasing overnight.
Therefore will continue to mention a slight chance of thunderstorms.
Models are split with the track of the surface and mid level lows
with the CMC and GFS north in Nebraska and the NAM and ECMWF across
northern Kansas. Will keep a blend going for now on Friday and
Friday night. Thermal fields are looking a bit warmer late Friday
night and forecast soundings suggest that rain and perhaps a brief
period of sleet is possible toward sunrise Saturday morning. A zonal
flow pattern sets up through the weekend and into next week. The
next chance of precipitation still looks like Sunday night into
Monday as another trough moves east across the Plains. Temperatures
will be near of above normal from the weekend into mid week next


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

VFR conditions for the entire forecast period. Winds will be the
aviation problem of the day. Southerly to southwesterly winds
continue through the period with gusts increasing this afternoon
before calming into the sunset time frame. LLWS conditions set up
late evening and have gone with mention in the TAFs with the layer
topping out around 1500 ft.


Issued at 324 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Today, moisture will be on the increase with southerly winds
through the afternoon, but the concern is that more appreciable
moisture quality doesn`t arrive into the region until late
afternoon. This being one reason for lower RH values to be
maintained. Considering wind values will likely gust into the mid
to upper 20 mph range, feel confident that Red Flag warning
criteria will be met through the afternoon. Only places with lower
confidence remained along the KS/NE border, so those counties
have remained in Very High Fire Danger. It is possible that if
wind values end up being stronger in this area that they may also
reach Red Flag Criteria. If this is the case, do expect conditions
in the Extreme category to remain short lived again primarily
from Washington to Brown county.

Moisture increases during day on Thursday with minimum relative
humidity from 27 to 33 percent in the afternoon hours. Given winds
in the 12 to 17 mph range with some gusts near 25 mph in the
afternoon will create very high fire danger generally west of a
Garnett to Topeka to Marysville line.


Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
evening for KSZ008-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.



FIRE WEATHER...Drake/53 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.