876
FXUS63 KDLH 131739
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1239 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Smoke is expected to persist through Monday with perhaps a
  brief break for some places Sunday afternoon.

- The next best chances for showers and storms is Sunday evening
  and again Monday night through Tuesday. Periodic shower/storm
  chances the rest of the week.

- Warm weather with highs in the 80s expected Sunday and Monday
  with cooler weather for the middle and latter half of next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 353 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Smoke:

Plenty of haze and smoke is expected today and again Monday,
having been brought in on the prevailing northwest winds
Saturday. Winds will back into the southwest for today in
advance of a cold front that will move through later this
afternoon and evening. We should get a period of better
conditions with less smoke this afternoon ahead of that cold
front. There will be another surge of it behind the cold front
tonight and Monday, though perhaps with not as much density as
we had on Saturday. Visibilities will be variable as smoke
coverage varies, but generally between 3-6 miles and
occasionally down to 1-2 miles. Air quality alerts are in effect
through Monday for all of Minnesota and Wisconsin. Find air
quality information through Minnesota Pollution Control Agency
(https:/www.pca.state.mn.us/air-water-land-climate/air-quality)
and Wisconsin DNR (https:/dnr.wisconsin.gov/topic/AirQuality).

Today and tonight:

Another warm and sticky day is expected today, with warm air
advection and warm temperatures aloft to help boost high
temperatures into the low to mid 80s. A cold front will push
into the area from the northwest this afternoon, the continue
through the area tonight. There should be enough convergence
along this boundary as it slides through the area to kick off
some showers and storms. While instability will not be very
significant over northern Minnesota, as it gets into the
southern portions of the CWA, it increases, and together with
the deep layer shear, we may looking at some potential for
strong to severe storms if these ingredients come together just
right. The weak mid level lapse rates and somewhat shallow
nature of the available low level moisture are going to inhibit
the potential storms. Isolated large hail or wind gusts are
possible, and we do have a marginal risk of severe storms from
SPC.

Monday:

Another warm and sticky day is expected, despite having had a
cold front move through the area tonight. The pattern returns to
a more zonal flow, with warm air advection aloft and warm and
humid surface air moving back into the area.

Monday night through Wednesday:

Zonal flow continues across the central CONUS, with a series of
shortwaves that move across the region through Wednesday. A
fairly strong leading wave moves across the area Monday night
into Tuesday in combination with a inverted trough axis that
slowly settles across the region. Deep moisture is healthy if
not extreme, with PWAT values of around 1.5" during this time
range. This pattern, combined wit the moisture could promote at
least some training potential of thunderstorms that may develop
ahead of the front Monday night. There is enough model
disagreement in the instability and shear parameters that
confidence is low in the potential for strong to severe storms.
However, we may see some stronger storms Monday night and into
Tuesday. Tuesday night into Wednesday, the surface boundary sags
south of the forecast area, but with the west-southwest flow
aloft continuing to push waves of energy across it, we are
looking at the potential for additional rainfall to continue
Tuesday night into Wednesday. The severe risk is pushed to the
south of the area, but the potential for training storms again
over the same areas that will have received rainfall Monday
night increases our risk for heavier rainfall and potential
flash flooding on Tuesday night. WPC has put our area under a
slight risk of excessive rainfall for Tuesday night, but has
only a marginal risk for Monday night. With the passage of this
boundary, we finally get into some cooler temperatures on
Wednesday, with highs Wednesday only in the 60s to low 70s.

Thursday through Saturday:

A ridge of high pressure will push into the area for Thursday,
giving us a relatively quiet day. After the rather chilly day on
Wednesday, temperatures should recover back into the 70s for
most areas. Precipitation chances return to the area for Friday
and Saturday, as some weak shortwaves move through the broad
cyclonic flow aloft. Temperatures remain near to cooler than
normal through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Visibility reductions from Canadian wildfires will improve
through the afternoon, as winds increase from the southwest,
ahead of an approaching cold front. Wind gusts of 18-22kt are
possible.

That cold front will slide through the area late this afternoon
and this evening. A few showers or storms are possible along the
front, but coverage is not great enough to include at any
particular taf site. The cold front this evening may bring
another surge of smoke behind it tonight and some reduced
visibilities once again.


&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 353 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Southwest winds to strengthen today, with gusts pushing up to
20 to 25 knots, especially in the open waters and along the
North Shore north of Taconite Harbor for the late morning and
afternoon hour before diminishing again this evening. Wind
speeds decrease Sunday night and become westerly for Monday at 5
to 15 knots. They drop still further and become more variable
in direction with generally light speeds Monday night into
Tuesday. Isolated storms are possible Sunday late afternoon and
evening, There are additional chances for storms (30-40% chance)
Monday night into Tuesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     LSZ140>146.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...LE