Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 170924

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
424 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 424 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

A closed upper low was located over northwest Minnesota at 08Z/3am.
An area of moderate to heavy rain was moving along the international
border from International Falls to Crane Lake, then southeast to
Ely. These showers were occurring ahead of the closed low as
embedded impulses rotate around the low and move across the northern
half of the forecast area. These showers are also accompanied by
upper level divergence, some frontogenesis in the lower levels, and
warm air advection from 925-700mb. This closed circulation will
slowly drift along the Borderland today. Periods of showers will dot
the landscape north of US Highway 2 in northeast Minnesota this
morning. The upper low opens into a trof this afternoon as it slowly
moves east. A mid level closed circulation remains however. Showers
will percolate over much of the area, with some isolated
thunderstorms possible as more impulses drift through the region.
High pressure over Lake Superior will feed a dry, easterly flow of
air over the inland areas closet to the lake and may erode some of
the showers and storms. As a result, will have chance pops over much
of the area, with the highest pops along the path of the mid level
circulation. Max temps will be similar to Sunday with 60s north and
70s south.

A positively tilted upper trof will be over the forecast area
tonight, while the closed circulation is still found in the low
levels. Additional impulses will be ejected from the base of the trof
across the region, while a cold front moves through northwest
Wisconsin. Highest pops will be over the northern portion of the
forecast area ahead of the low level circulation, and along and
ahead of the front. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible as
MUCAPE values approach 500 J/kg. Min temps will be mainly in the 40s
to around 50.

There is little change to the upper pattern on Tuesday. At the
surface, high pressure establishes itself over the region. Even with
the high, the embedded impulses ahead of the trof will generate some
showers with isolated thunderstorms. Max temps will be similar again
on Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 424 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

The extended begins with the passage of a shortwave trough resulting
in some lingering showers and storms Tuesday evening. Surface high
pressure over Lake Superior will keep the region dry on Wednesday.
There are some model differences in handling the next system. In
general, an upper low moves southeastward out of Alberta into the
Saskatchewan/Montana border on Thursday. The low slowly lifts
northeastward into the southeastern Canadian Prairies through the
weekend. This upper low will bring several rounds of widespread
showers and storms Friday through Sunday. Potential southwesterly
flow ahead of the low could lead to the development of a few strong
thunderstorms Friday through the weekend. Temperatures will remain
near to slightly below normal through the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

VFR conditions under mostly cloudy skies were observed across the
Northland this evening. An approaching area of low pressure should
bring some scattered rain showers overnight. Colder air aloft should
help bring some lower ceilings to a large portion of the region as
the low approaches, with ceilings dipping into the MVFR, and
possibly IFR, ranges. The lowest ceilings are expected to occur over
north-central Minnesota tonight and into the day Monday, closer to
the surface low. Another round of rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms will be possible for Monday afternoon and evening.
Winds will be light and variable through the TAF period.


Issued at 424 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

Northeast winds will strengthen once again for today. Similar to the
last few days, the strongest wind gusts are expected over the far
western arm of Lake Superior with gusts around 15 knots possible
through Monday afternoon. Winds weaken tomorrow becoming mainly
light and variable.


DLH  66  43  66  45 /  40  30  20  10
INL  62  46  70  46 /  40  30  20  10
BRD  73  51  71  50 /  10  10  20  10
HYR  75  46  72  45 /  40  30  20  10
ASX  70  43  66  43 /  40  40  20  10




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