Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 142142

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
342 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 342 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

An upper level trof was swinging through the forecast area this
afternoon, and generating some clouds over the Arrowhead and much of
northwest Wisconsin. Scattered snow showers were found over the tip
of the Arrowhead, and east of Wisconsin Highway 27. High pressure
was located over the Dakotas. The lake effect snow is having
difficulty organizing along the south shore as the surface wind has
been variable in direction through the day. Latest model guidance
points toward the lake effect ending by 10Z/4am as the surface wind
turns to the west. Drier air also is a factor by this time. Will end
the Winter Weather Advisory at 10Z/4am. Elsewhere, a mainly clear
sky is expected with the surface ridge nearby. Neutral temperature
advection for most of the night, with warm air advection beginning
late. Reasonably light wind will keep wind chill values in check.
Minimum temps will be below zero, except in north central Wisconsin
where cloud clover will be greater due to lake influences, and temps
will be just above zero.

The surface ridge will be in the vicinity of the area Sunday. An
upper level short wave trof will approach in the afternoon with an
increase in mid level moisture. Minor model differences in the
amount of moisture and the warm air advection occurring through the
day, and whether there will be any precipitation. Followed a blended
approach to model solutions and results in no precipitation. Max
temps will be in the single digits, warmer near Lake Superior.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 342 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

Quiet and continued cold for the first half of the week. Then
trending warmer with temperatures near to above normal Thursday
and beyond. Aside from lake effect snow chances along the South
Shore, the long term is shaping up pretty dry with only a few
slight chances of snow.

Westerly winds aloft Sunday night will usher in warmer air and
should buoy temperatures overnight, which will keep most
locations above zero until after 12Z. Skies will likely be cloudy
overnight. A cold front will arrive early Monday morning and will
usher in another surge of modified Arctic air. Temperatures will
gradually rise a few degrees during the day. The fast northwest
flow aloft will bring another weak wave through the Northland
Monday night and Tuesday. Warm air advection is expected
overnight into Tuesday morning with an Arctic front expected to
arrive on Tuesday. The strong cold air advection may support a
few scattered snow showers or flurries over northern Minnesota
during the day. Measurable snowfall chances are slim. The Arctic
air will keep temperatures nearly steady or falling Tuesday with
and yield overnight lows in the -5 to -20 degree range for
Wednesday morning.

The flow aloft will become more zonal on Wednesday ushering in
much warmer air. Look for temperatures to trend a few degrees
warmer on Wednesday and then much warmer for Thursday and Friday.
Highs on Thursday will be in the low to upper 20s and a few spots
in northwest Wisconsin may reach the low 30s on Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1159 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

High pressure will move southeastward from southern Manitoba to
southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois by 15Z Sunday. Lake
effect clouds and snow showers will continue to affect HYR, but
the remaining sites should trend clear through tonight. Winds will
be from the northwest and will back southwesterly Sunday morning.
A few strong gusts to around 25 knots are likely at terminals
along the North Shore, including DLH. Mid-level clouds move in
from the west again late Sunday morning as a weak and moisture
starved shortwave trough moves into the Upper Midwest.


Issued at 342 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

Northwest winds are expected through early Sunday morning in
response to low pressure departing to the east and surface high
pressure approaching from the west. The pressure gradient will
tighten for the afternoon and then relax overnight. Wind speeds
will increase to 10 to 20 knots with a few gusts to 25 knots
along the South Shore while cold air drainage winds along the
North Shore produce wind speeds of 10 to 20 knots with gusts to
near 30 knots possible. The wind and resultant waves will create
conditions hazardous to smaller vessels for portions of the South
and North Shore waters. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for
those areas until midnight tonight. Winds will back southwesterly
for Sunday and will generally be in the 10 to 15 knot range for
the nearshore waters, with stronger winds possible over the open
waters. No strong storms are expected for the remainder of the
forecast period and wind speeds should remain below 20 knots.


DLH -10   7   3  10 /   0   0  10   0
INL -15   8   0   7 /   0  10  10   0
BRD -15   8   3  10 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  -6   9   3  13 /   0   0  10   0
ASX   2  12   6  14 /  50  10   0   0


WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM CST Sunday for WIZ004.

LS...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for LSZ146>148.



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