Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 201147 AAA
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
647 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 647 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

Updated below for 12Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 512 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

High pressure was in place across the Northland early this morning
leading to mainly clear skies with some fog and low clouds over
parts of northwest Wisconsin. A cold front was located over
eastern Lake Superior into lower Michigan with low pressure over
the High Plains of Wyoming and Colorado. An upper trough will move
an upper low out of the Rockies this morning with a surface low
ahead of it moving from the High Plains into the Central Plains
this afternoon. This will lead to increasing clouds this
afternoon, but dry conditions are expected to prevail through
sunset. One last day of warm temperatures will be seen today with
highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Skies will then become
cloudy this evening with showers and a few embedded thunderstorms
spreading from southwest to northeast overnight. The low across
the Central Plains will move into southern Minnesota overnight and
begin to deepen and become nearly vertically stacked. This will
lead to increasing easterly winds tonight, especially across
western Lake Superior. The best chance for rainfall will move into
the Brainerd Lakes area around daybreak with the far eastern part
of the Arrowhead likely remaining dry through the night. Lows
tonight will not be as cool, only dropping into the 40s.

The low will then slowly move northeastward during the day Monday.
The most likely track will take it near or over western Lake
Superior by Monday evening. This track will lead to lighter winds
over the Northland through the day, but the northeasterly fetch
over western Lake Superior will lead to enhanced winds over the
lake. Showers and embedded thunderstorms will remain possible
through the day. Model guidance has been favoring the northern
quadrant of the low for enhanced precipitation amounts and have
upped QPF along the North Shore as a result Monday afternoon.
Temperatures won`t warm too much on Monday with highs in the upper
40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 512 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

The main concern for the extended is the  storm system at the
beginning of the period and the high wind potential with it for
Tuesday.

Models have come into better agreement in regards to the track of
the low across western Lake Superior for the Monday night into
Tuesday timeframe and the consensus track will keep the dry slot
of the system to our south and east. This will keep showers
likely for Monday night and much of Tuesday with the back end of
the showers expected to move into the Brainerd Lakes area around
midday Tuesday and slowly work northeast through the afternoon
hours. Mainly dry conditions are then expected by late Tuesday
night, although some wrap-around showers may linger along the
International Border and Minnesota Arrowhead. As cooler air wraps
around the system as well Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night,
rain may mix with or change to all snow in spots before ending. A
very tight gradient is expected to develop on the backside of the
departing low Tuesday as it deepens to around 985-990mb Tuesday
afternoon. This will lead to sustained northwest winds of 15 to 25
mph with gusts to 20 to 35 mph. Current forecast is on the higher
end of guidance, but there remains some higher gusts in a few models,
especially in the western and southern portions of the CWA.
Higher gusts to 40 to 45+ mph are not out of the question and may
necessitate a Wind Advisory for a time Tuesday.

The low then moves into northern Ontario Wednesday but showers in
the CAA regime on the backside of the low will remain possible
into Thursday with hints of a weak shortwave moving overhead
Thursday to enhance this a bit. Conditions then trend drier for
Friday, but confidence heading into the weekend is lower as models
diverge. The dry trend may continue into the start of the weekend
but there are hints that a cold front may move through as well.

Highs Wednesday through Friday will be in the 30s and 40s before
warming into the 40s to near 50 by the weekend. Overnight lows
will be in the 20s and 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 647 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period.
Skies will start mainly clear, but clouds will increase from
southwest to northeast and lower through tonight. Showers will
become possible at KBRD and KHYR overnight, but any ceiling or
visibility restrictions associated with this will hold off until
after this period. Winds will generally be light and start to
increase overnight. KBRD may see a few gusts to around 15 knots
overnight as low pressure begins to approach from the southwest.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 512 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

Quiet conditions will persist through the day today as high
pressure moves through. As it moves east tonight, low pressure
will begin to deepen across the Central Plains and turn winds
northeasterly across western Lake Superior. As the low moves
closer Monday, winds will increase to 15 to 25 knots with gusts
to 30 to 35 knots along the North Shore. This will lead to waves
of 6 to 10 feet plus by Monday afternoon into Monday night. A
Small Craft Advisory has been issued for most areas starting
Monday morning and the far eastern zones will likely need to be
added starting later Monday morning. As the low moves overhead
Monday night, winds will diminish then become northwesterly and
increase on the backside of the low Tuesday morning. Winds Tuesday
look to be stronger than on Monday and Gale Warnings will likely
be needed. Showers are expected starting late tonight and will
continue into Tuesday and may be heavy at times. A few lightning
strikes cannot be ruled out near the head of the lake during the
day Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  44  49  39 /   0  40  90  90
INL  58  42  49  39 /   0  40  90  90
BRD  59  46  50  38 /  10  80  90  70
HYR  61  47  54  40 /   0  60  90  80
ASX  60  43  55  40 /   0  30  90  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for
     LSZ140>147.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BJH
SHORT TERM...BJH
LONG TERM...BJH
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...BJH


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