Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 271605

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1005 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2020

Issued at 1003 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2020

Across eastern North Dakota/western Minnesota, dry, cold air is
in place this morning, with a broken stratus deck slowly moving
southwest. Recent short term models have been trending down in
precipitation across central MN, so decided to eliminate most pops
across western CWA this afternoon and evening. Only a chance for
a few flurries this evening across southern Cass and Crow Wing
counties. Elsewhere isolated lake effect snow showers will
continue today across Bayfield, Ashland, Iron, and northern Price
counties. Snow will be very dry, so not much accumulation is
expected through this morning and into the afternoon.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 325 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2020

A fairly quiet weather pattern to end the work week with a brief
period of seasonal temperatures transitioning back to above normal
temperatures. Some light accumulating snowfall along parts of the
south shore this morning due to lake effect, but this will gradually
come to an end through the day as drier air moves in from the north.
There will be a very low chance for passing snow shower or flurry
late today into this evening across parts of central Minnesota, but
otherwise dry through the rest of the week. A mix of sun and clouds
today and this evening, then a clearing trend late tonight and sunny
on Friday. Highs today similar to yesterday in the teens to near
20, then the coldest night of the week tonight with lows near to
around ten degrees below zero across northeast Minnesota. Wind chill
values around 10 to 20 below zero on Friday morning, coldest across
the Minnesota Arrowhead. Warmer Friday with highs in the upper teens
to mid 20s under sunny skies.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2020

The main forecast concerns for the long term involve high
temperatures on Sunday and a few chances for light precipitation.

A subtle shortwave trough will propagate southeastward over
northwest Ontario, northern Minnesota, and northwest Wisconsin
Friday night and Saturday morning. Ahead of the feature, skies
will be mainly clear which will support efficient radiational
cooling and have lowered minimum temps in response. Limited
moisture ahead of this feature will result in only a slight
chance of snow showers or flurries Saturday morning. Accumulation
is expected to be less than an inch. An upper-level ridge will
move eastward from the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies into
the western Great Lakes by Sunday. Westerly winds aloft and
southerly breezes at the surface will usher in warmer air. Highs
on Sunday will be in the upper 30s to middle 40s. The progressive
pattern aloft will bring another trough southeastward through the
region Sunday afternoon and evening. Surface low pressure ahead
of the trough will move from the Canadian Prairies into northern
Ontario with a cool front extending to the southwest, which will
move through the Northland. The Canadian airmass behind the front
will trend temperatures cooler for the start of the work week.
Look for highs Monday in the 30s. Cold air advection and cyclonic
vorticity advection on the southwest flank of the surface low may
be sufficient to squeeze out a few rain or snow showers Sunday
night into Monday.

Model solutions diverge for Monday night and beyond with a few
weak waves passing over the region. Precipitation chances will be
low during this time, but a few snow showers cant be ruled out.
Deterministic and ensemble solutions indicate a high-amplitude
longwave trough which will pass over the central CONUS and
Canadian Prairies during the Wednesday and Thursday time period.

Specifics vary with each model, but the potential for wintry
mixed precipitation for portions of the Northland is non-zero.
The 27.00Z runs keep the heaviest precipitation south and east of
the Northland, certainly close enough to warrant slight chance to
chance POPs.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 555 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2020

Scattered to overcast mid to low level clouds across some of the
TAF sites today into this evening will lead to periods of MVFR
conditions, with a trend towards VFR conditions tonight. Today and
this evening ceilings will hover right around the 3kft MVFR
threshold, with the greatest chance for MVFR conditions at BRD
where a light snow shower is possible this afternoon. Otherwise
ceilings should generally remain VFR at other sites with clearing
skies tonight. Winds weak out of the northwest to north around 5
to 10 knots today, less than 5 knots tonight.


DLH  17  -1  23   6 /   0  10  10  20
INL  16  -9  23   4 /   0  10  10  20
BRD  20   4  26  10 /   0  20  10  10
HYR  19  -2  25   0 /  10  10   0  10
ASX  18   2  24   4 /  30  20   0  10




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