Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 171154

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
654 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Issued at 654 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

No changes at this update.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Surface ridge was located over northeast ND. Surface ridge will move
into IL by Sun morning. Return flow will bring high dewpoints for
today and tonight. Added patchy fog for this morning mainly over the
Devils Lake basin. Also added patchy fog for Sun morning for eastern
ND and parts of northwest MN.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Sunday through Tuesday...The upper ridge over the area will start
breaking down by the end of the weekend, leaving split flow aloft
with several shortwaves entering the Plains. The main upper low
looks to be well to our south, but the models are in reasonable
agreement on northern branch shortwaves tracking across the area.
The first shortwave will come into the Dakotas Sunday night/Monday,
with another one digging down out of Canada into the Red river
Valley by Tuesday. These should bring several days of light precip
chances. At this point it seems like banding potential is fairly
minimal but will keep an eye out for any changes to the model
solutions. Some model solutions are showing some drying aloft at
times which would decrease ice formation and allow some FZDZ. Snow
amounts seem mostly in the 1 to 3 inch range at this point. Temps in
the mid 30s to low 40s on Sunday will be knocked back a bit with
clouds and precip for early in the work week.

Wednesday through Friday...Mid-week should be fairly quiet with
northwesterly flow aloft and high pressure. Flow then transitions to
a more active pattern with another large trough developing over the
northern Rockies by the end of the week. Model solutions have been
fairly inconsistent with a large amount of ensemble member spread
for QPF. Will keep the blended solution with fairly high POPs and a
mix of rain/snow with temps slightly above seasonal averages.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 654 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

A clear sky was across the area. However MVFR cigs were to the south
and west and to the north and east of the area. Clouds to the south
and west will shift north and east for today and tonight. Expect
mostly MVFR/IFR conditions for the eastern ND and adjacent parts of
northwest MN by Sun morning. VFR conditions may remain over the
eastern zones by Sun morning.




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