Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 210525
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
125 AM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Expansive high pressure will build across the region this
weekend...ushering in a welcome period of fair dry weather and day
to day warming that will last through early next week...when
temperatures will finally climb back to much more typical springtime
levels.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Clear skies and light winds will set the stage for a cold night with
lows ranging from the lower to mid 20s in the normally colder
interior portions of the Southern Tier and North Country...to around
30 right along the lakeshores.

On Saturday the core of the large surface ridge will build directly
across our area...with attendant subsidence and plentiful dry air
promoting dry weather along with mostly sunny skies...with a passing
upper level jet streak merely bringing a period of cirrus-level
cloudiness to portions of the western Southern Tier. Meanwhile the
strong April sun will help to modify our resident airmass...thereby
allowing daytime highs to recover into the mid to upper 40s across
the higher terrain and in areas of lake influences to the lower 50s
elsewhere. This will merely be the beginning of a steady day to day
warming trend that will last through early next week and will help
to finally bring temperatures back up to much more typical springtime
levels...the details of which are discussed further in the short term
section below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The tranquil weather continues into the end of the weekend with high
pressure across the eastern Great Lakes Saturday night and Sunday.
Clear night skies and light winds will allow temperatures to radiate
Saturday night and Sunday night. Low temperatures will drop into the
U20s/L30s both nights. A light northerly component will keep
temperatures from reaching their full potential Sunday however full
sunshine will continue the upward trend in temperatures, in the mid
to upper 50s.

High pressure moves to the east and over New England Monday. A light
southerly flow begins Monday and the combination of enhanced
subsidence, sunshine and warm air advection will allow temperatures
to climb into the 60s inland. A lake breeze will likely win out
under light southerly flow and areas along the lake shores will stay
in the 50s.

A closed upper level low will move from the TN Valley into the lower
Ohio Valley while high pressure moves off the southern New England
coast Monday night. Mid-high level clouds will increase and a light
southerly flow will keep temperatures elevated overnight, in the
U30s/L40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Above normal temperatures in the low 60s will continue into Tuesday
as the area will be under the influence of warm air advection with a
southerly flow. Cloud cover will begin to increase as the next area
of low pressure approaches WNY.

Tuesday night through Friday will bring increased chances for rain
as the next synoptic system approaches. Discrepancy still exists
between the GFS and the ECMWF. The GFS maintains a showery pattern
from Wed morning through at least Friday evening with a Great Lakes
system shifting east into the area as a second weaker system treks
north along the mid-Atlantic coast. The GFS is slower than the ECMWF
to move these systems out of the area and maintains the showers for
this entire time period. The ECMWF takes a more dominant synoptic
system up the mid-Atlantic coast and a upper level trough across the
Great Lakes that pushes the surface feature quicker out of the area.
With this scenario the ECMWF give the BUF CWA dry weather from
Thursday morning through late Friday evening before the next system
develops over the mid-Mississippi Valley and shifts northeast for
late Friday night.

Temperatures will cool down some with the passage of this system.
Highs Wednesday through Friday will generally be in the 50s for most
areas. 850mb temps are still above 0C through Friday evening
although the GFS brings much cooler temps starting late Friday than
the ECMWF does.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Widespread VFR will prevail across the area today and tonight,
along with light winds, as high pressure builds across the region.

Outlook...
Saturday night through Tuesday...VFR.
Tuesday night and Wednesday...Areas of MVFR with a chance of rain
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
An extended period of tranquil conditions is expected this weekend
and early next week as high pressure first builds directly across
the Lower Great Lakes...then slowly drifts off to the east.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/Thomas
NEAR TERM...Church/Thomas
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...Church
MARINE...Church



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