Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 220747

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
347 AM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

High pressure will slowly drift east across the area through Monday
and provide plenty of sunshine each day and much warmer
temperatures. Low pressure moving from the Ohio Valley to New
England will then bring rain showers to the region from late Tuesday
through Wednesday.


Surface high pressure will build slowly from the central Great Lakes
today to the eastern Great Lakes and western New England tonight.
With a very dry airmass and subsidence expect full sunshine today
and clear skies tonight.

Weak northerly flow will remain in place today, with airmass
modification warming 850mb temps to around 0C. This will support
highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s at lower elevations away from
lake influences, with mid 50s for higher terrain. The weak gradient
northerly flow will be enhanced by lake breeze circulations this
afternoon, keeping the south shores of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie in
the mid to upper 40s. Expect another good radiational cooling night
tonight with clear skies and light winds. Lows will be in the 30s in
most locations, with 20s east of Lake Ontario.


Monday will be the warmest day we`ve seen in quite some time as high
pressure slides off the New England coast and southerly return flow
is in full force across the region. The combination of 850 mb
temperatures of around +5 to +6C arriving across the region, light
southerly downslope flow and mostly sunny skies will push high
temperatures well into the 60s, if not around the 70 degree mark for
the typical warm spots. Monday night will be the first more mild
night we`ve seen as well, with increasing warm advection and
downsloping holding overnight lows in the 40s.

Tuesday will remain mild with the southerly flow across the region,
but will likely but just a touch cooler as a cutoff low over stalls
over the Tennessee Valley before beginning a merger with a potent wave
diving in from the upper Great Lakes. The first half of Tuesday will
likely remain dry, with increasing cloud cover, however rain showers
may move in across western NY during the second half of Tuesday,
especially by Tuesday evening. Highs will still be solidly in the
60s for most locations, with Tuesday night lows in the 40s.

Tuesday night into Wednesday will see widespread rain showers, and
possibly some periods of fairly steady rain as the cutoff low merges
with the northern stream wave with a strengthening surface low near
or over the forecast area. Temperatures will moderate further under
the upper-level low and the cloudy, rainy weather, bringing highs
mainly the 50s Wednesday. Rain will continue to into Wednesday
night, while likely starting to taper off from west to east
overnight as the surface low tracks northeastward away from the
forecast area.


Through the end of the week, the overall pattern will return to
general troughiness over the Northeast. While this will mean an
overall return to cooler and more unsettled weather, the airmass is
not nearly as cold as we dealt with for the first half of April. So
while temperatures will remain slightly below normal, this only
means highs in the 50s, with showers coming in the form of rain
instead of snow.

Looking at the day-to-day details, the shower activity should taper
back from west to east Thursday as the surface low pushes farther
into New England. There may be a brief period of dry weather later
Thursday into Friday as some ridging develops behind the wave moving
into New England and the incoming reinforcing shortwave. This
secondary shortwave will send a cold front into the region some time
Friday with additional chances for showers which may linger through


VFR will prevail through the rest of the weekend with strong high
pressure bringing SKC through tonight.


Monday...VFR. Tuesday...VFR with a chance of afternoon showers.
Tuesday night and Wednesday...Areas of MVFR with showers likely.
Thursday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers.


High pressure will drift from the central Great Lakes today to the
eastern Great Lakes tonight and Sunday, before moving off the
southern New England coast Monday. This will support light winds and
flat wave action on Lakes Erie and Ontario through Monday. Local
lake breeze circulations will develop each afternoon with onshore
winds along most lakeshores.





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