Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 142327

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
727 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Issued at 335 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Dry weather expected through the next couple days with below
normal highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Wintry mix possible
late Friday night especially southwest of Rochester. Temperatures
warm up this weekend with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 335 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

A moisture starved trough and associated surface front will move
through the area tonight with only impacts bring increase in
clouds and reinforcement of cooler temperatures that will persist
into Friday.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 335 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

More active pattern attempts to set up for the long term with
models now bringing potent wave a bit further north, spreading
precip into at least the southwest half of the area. Thermal
profiles concerning depending on your model of choice with
NE extent and exact temps all raising havoc. GFS most aggressive
and warmest with 850 mb temps soaring to +3 to +5 C. NAM/EC more
subdued but still above zero with period if limited/no ice in the
clouds. Result is continued mention of sleet and freezing rain in
far southwest areas mainly in the 06-12Z Sat time frame. Some
light ice accumulation would be possible. There will be a strong
gradient on the leading edge as ridge to the NE holds firmly in
place where mainly snow will occur. Precip will move out rapidly
Saturday with any ice melting off as temps head into the 40s.

Brief breather over the remainder of the weekend with limited
height increases aloft allowing temps to head closer to normal in
the upper 40s to near 50. Won`t stick around long as another
strong disturbance moves towards the region. Models still varying
on northward extent of impacts with strong baroclinic zone in
place somewhere in the region, causing mix precip potential once
again along/north of this feature.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 724 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

VFR conditions remain through the forecast period. Midlevel clouds
do move in during the mid morning time frame and continue into the
day, but conditions should stay in VFR. A low level jet passes by
to the south during the overnight, but LLWS is too marginal for
inclusion in this issuance. Surface winds tonight won`t drop too
much, staying around or just below 10 kts out of the southwest,
but will be able to veer towards the northwest and pick up into
the 10s of knots Thursday with gusts to around 20 kts.


LM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM EDT
     Thursday for LMZ043-046.



LONG TERM...Fisher

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