Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 160751

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
351 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Issued at 350 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Scattered rain and snow showers are expected today as a cold upper
level system moves through the region and into the Lower Great
Lakes later tonight. Temperatures will remain quite cold with high
temperatures in the upper 30s today and into the 20s tonight.
Temperatures will warm into the 50s by midweek, along with another
chance of rain.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 344 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Deep mid level circulation to track through the southern Great
Lakes today. Cold air advection deepens with lake enhancement and
minor perturbations to bring mix ra/sn showers with marginal
surface temperatures lending partial melt. Inland lake region
expected to remain frozen precipitation type proximal to low level
cold core. Gradual decrease in precipitation response overnight
as system energy transfers to mid Atlantic region. Of note are
apparent temperatures into the middle/upper teens late tonight
into early Tuesday, owing to magnitude of low level cold pool and
lack of decoupling.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 344 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Intervening surface ridge between downstream and upstream vortex
presently moving into northern CA. Plains cyclogenetic response
midweek with similar track through southern portion of Great Lakes.
Sufficient warm sector establishment to largely maintain
precipitation as liquid, save for northeast CWA late Wednesday
night. Thereafter an extended dry period for Thursday into at least
early next week as another system cuts off over four corners region
Friday and tracks eastward through Gulf states. Rexing ridge to
dominate north of this vortex, through the plains and into the
western Great Lakes. Gradual thermal moderation through the period,
though only to near/slightly below normal by early next week, with
surface ridge of dry/CP Canadian Rockies origin.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1243 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Upper low and associated warp around moisture will keep IFR-low
MVFR cigs and chances for drizzle and light snow showers around
through the TAF cycle. Best chances for snow showers and reduced
visibilities will be late morning into the afternoon at mainly KSBN
thanks to some lake/diurnal enhancement. Westerly winds will pick
up otherwise today with gusts 20-30 knots by late


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for LMZ043-046.



LONG TERM...Murphy

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