Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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800 FXUS63 KIWX 141634 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1234 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and storms developing late this afternoon. - An unsettled pattern prevails this weekend into early next week. - Temperatures will rise above normal with highs around 80 Sunday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 933 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024 Scissors have been used extensively this morning with respect to the POP forecast today. POPs are lowest along the Michigan state line where coverage is most questionable. POPs are highest south of US 30, where upper-level forcing is best. We`ll be a lull, dry period, as of this writing and through at least the early afternoon hours. Thereafter, scattered showers and storms are expected to develop in the vicinity of a stationary front strung up along and just north of the US 30 corridor. A second area of develop will be downstream of a stacked upper- low, whose downstream moisture advection is currently nosing through central Indiana. Coverage of showers and storms this afternoon and evening is still questionable, especially given the lackluster verification of the past 24 hours. The slow evolution of today`s POPs will likely linger into Wednesday morning for a portion of the forecast area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 327 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024 A wet pattern is ahead as a series of upper level systems drift across the CONUS and reach the Midwest and Ohio Valley regions. The core of initial system was over northeast MO early this morning with energy extending well south to near the Red River over southern Oklahoma. This system will spread additional showers and scattered storms across the area mainly this afternoon and tonight. The environment ahead of this system will consist of very low CAPE values with tall/thin CAPEs. Bulk shear will remain low and should not be enough to support severe storms. Saturation up to 300 mb is expected with high precipitable water values (1.2 to 1.4") which will favor heavy downpours which could lead to brief local flooding of poor drainage areas and possible an isolated urban area. A second in the series of upper level system will bring an additional round of rain showers and scattered storms Thursday night through Friday with lingering showers possible Saturday. The environment ahead of this system will be similar to the one today and favorable for heavy downpours. More energy arrive early next week a support more showers and storms. Highs Sunday should be close to 80 with dew points probably topping 60 degrees. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1233 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024 Primarily dry with cigs in the high MVFR to low VFR range. Some weak diurnal heating may spark a few showers/storms in the vicinity of a stationary boundary this afternoon, though point chances remain on the low side. Better shower chances arrive this evening into the early overnight at mainly KFWA as deeper moisture associated with a small scale vort max advects in from the south. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Brown DISCUSSION...Skipper AVIATION...Steinwedel