Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 250000

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
800 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Issued at 754 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Areas of light rain and drizzle will be possible through the
remainder of the evening, mainly east of Interstate 69. Cool and
dry otherwise with lows in the 40s tonight. The rest of the week
through next weekend will feature mainly dry conditions and
temperatures averaging a little below normal for late April. This
changes early next week as southwesterly winds usher in much
warmer air.


Issued at 742 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Previous forecast is in good shape this evening. Bulk of remaining
light rain/sprinkles/drizzle should stay across mainly eastern
half of the area as low/mid level deformation zone slowly creeps
eastward overnight. SREF and some higher res guidance continue to
indicate some fog potential across the far southeast. With
gradually strengthening low level flow late tonight into early
Wednesday will continue to trend more toward stratus/non-
mentionable fog scenario at this time.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 244 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

A mid-upper level low over the TN Valley will meander/open east
toward the Central Appalachians tonight, while a northern stream
shortwave translates southeast into the Great Lakes region later
tonight/Wed AM. Moisture transport into a 850 mb trough axis, north
of the TN Valley system, should clip areas east of I-69 with a
period of light rain later this afternoon/evening. A few areas of
light rain/drizzle will also be possible to the west during this
time, especially north of US 6 where some weak upper divergence/mid
lvl pva overspreads. Cloudy/cool otherwise into tonight.

Negative low-mid level theta-e advection in the wake of a cold front
will bring an end to light rain/drizzle chances and clearing skies
on Wednesday. Cool northerly flow off Lake MI will make for a
cooler day (mid 40s to mid 50s) into far nw IN/sw Lower MI, while
partial clearing and deeper mixing likely allows highs to make a
run at 60F elsewhere.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Broad upper troughing over the Eastern US will keep temperatures a
little below normal Thursday through the upcoming weekend. A couple
of moisture starved/weak cold fronts will move through, one Friday
and another early Saturday. The Friday front could generate a few
showers, though chances remain low (20-30%) as better moisture
convergence bypasses south-southeast with another upper system
tracking through the TN Valley. Dry otherwise with high pressure in
control Thursday through Sunday.

Early next week will feature a significant warming trend and more
dry wx as positive height anomalies overspread in advance of a
Western US trough. Low level southwest flow on the backside of sfc
high pressure may allow highs to reach near 80F by Tuesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 742 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

A stronger northern stream wave will finally result in more
progression to upper low that has been slowly drifting south of
the area across eastern Kentucky/Tennessee. Weak mid level
deformation forcing will allow for continuation of some patchy
light rain/sprinkles/drizzle at KFWA for the remainder of the
evening with likely trend to IFR cigs over the next several hours.
Inverted sfc trough will finally push east of northeast Indiana
late tonight/early Wed allowing drier northerly low level flow to
improve conditions Wed morning. Steepening lapse rates on
Wednesday will result in some notable increase in gustiness, with
northwest winds to 10 to 15 knots gusting to around 20 knots.


LM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Wednesday to 2 AM EDT Thursday
     for LMZ043-046.



SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel

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