938
FXUS63 KIWX 020529
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
129 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lower humidity but still warm daytimes Today and Thursday
  with high temperatures into the mid-upper 80s.

- Hot and humid conditions return Friday into Saturday with
  afternoon heat indices well into the 90s.

- A stray, mainly late day, shower or storm possible (10-20%)
  Thursday and Friday, then better chances (40-50%) for showers
  and storms arrive Saturday night into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

An isolated shower or storm remains a possibility near the Lima OH
area along a remnant cold front this afternoon given weak
convergence and ~1000 j/kg of MLCAPE. Drier, less humid air the wx
story otherwise in wake of this boundary continues into Wednesday
and Thursday with pleasant nighttime conditions and seasonably warm
days under northwest flow aloft. Subtle troughing and height falls
into the western/central Great Lakes by Wednesday afternoon-evening
may aid in the development of a rogue shower or two in the vicinity
of any outflow/lake breezy boundaries, though opted to continue with
a silent 10 PoP for now given the drier air and associated weak
diurnal instability. Upper ridging does begin to build in from the
west on Thursday with a slightly warmer, more unstable environment.
Any convective outflows and subtle impulses cresting the upper ridge
could once again spark a diurnally driven shower or storm (10-20%)
in the afternoon-evening.

Guidance has remained consistent in the 500 mb ridge axis folding
east through the region Friday into Saturday with a return to
increasingly hot and humid conditions. The magnitude of the heat
could be reduced on Friday by any convective outflow/cloud debris on
the leading edge of an associated EML, though confidence is low at
this range. Higher confidence in highs sneaking into the 90s and PM
heat indices 95-100F on Saturday as capping likely prohibits
convective development during the day, and low level southwest flow
advects slightly higher dewpoint air in (upper 60s to near 70).
Ridge axis then flattens and an active frontal boundary sets up in
the vicinity for periodic shower/storm chances Saturday night
through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 124 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

High pressure pushing into the region today bringing VFR
conditions with a few cumulus clouds aoa 5 kft and light mainly
westerly to northwesterly breezes at 10 kts or less through the
remainder of this TAF period. There is a very low chance for a
stray shower/thunderstorm this evening and with this did keep
mention out of the TAF at this time.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Andersen