Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 181810

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
200 PM EDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Issued at 210 PM EDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Light rain will overspreads the area through late afternoon and
continue through this evening with a brief period of snow possible
as precipitation ends later tonight. A dusting is possible...mainly
on grassy and elevated surfaces. Dry conditions are then
expected tomorrow through early next week. Temperatures will
remain cool for Thursday but slowly moderate back to normal by


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Thursday)
Issued at 210 PM EDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Potent upstream sw over cntrl IA will dig sewd near term and cross
overhead this evening as associated mid level deformation zone dusts
the area with another skiff of snowfall.  In advance, warm advection
zone precipitation plume has largely struggled so far this morning.
12Z raobs in tandem with near term highres guidance point to a bit
better low level moisture incorporation this aftn and have stayed
the course with prior quickly ramping pops this aftn. Some isolated
thunder possible southeast late this aftn into early evening within
overlapping wrn bound of EML and theta-e ridge yet will defer attm
given lack of development within srn flank of warm advection wing.

System pulls away rapidly overnight as it gets caught up within New
England centered Fujiwara. Clearing skies late tonight west or Thu
morning east will yield a sunny but yet chilly day with gusty
northwest breezes.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 210 PM EDT Wed Apr 18 2018

General split CONUS flow aloft this period as sfc ridge parks over
the lakes. Nevertheless erosion of negative height anomalies over
ern Canada along with decaying/modifying low level lakes based
thermal trough signal substantial temperature moderation after
tomorrow, peaking toward DY6 (Tue).


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Radar returns beginning to edge closer to KSBN at issuance time,
but fighting dry airmass to start with. Still expecting rain to
move in after 21Z at KSBN and shortly there after at KFWA with
transition to snow after 00Z. Exact timing of switchover and
potential accumulations still up in the air with some trends
suggesting somewhat higher snow amounts possible at KSBN and even
a rumble of thunder not out of the realm of chance at KFWA. Kept
with spirit of previous TAFS and will continue to fine tune
through the remainder of the afternoon and 00Z TAFs. Needless to
say, IFR conditions to settle in much of the night. Conditions
should improve rapidly by Thursday as the system pulls away and
clearing commences.


LM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 PM EDT
     Thursday for LMZ043-046.




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