Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 150629
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
229 AM EDT Tue May 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 229 AM EDT Tue May 15 2018

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms early this morning
will quickly diminish after daybreak. Considerable clouds will
linger with afternoon storms likely over southern portions of
Indiana and Ohio. Highs this afternoon will range in the 70s.

Dry and warm weather is expected through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 229 AM EDT Tue May 15 2018

Another complicated near term owing to uncertain convective
evolution. Subtle wave disturbance passing through WI supporting
rather widespread/vigorous convection within elevated portion of
stationary front located just south the US 24 corridor. MCV remnant
from earlier MO complex aiding post outflow development west and
expect this will continue newd the next few hours. While occasional
updrafts upstream have indicated some brief hail at times, given the
late hour and elevated nature a marginal severe threat has been
nullified. Some locally brief heavy rainfall possible although
general fast newd echo movement will preclude a more sig risk for
flooding.

Lingering showers aft daybreak possible south half along retreating
frontal zone before a renewed convective focus materializes just
south of the area with favorable diurnal heating over srn IN/sw OH
this aftn. While some erosion in post frontal stratocu likely this
aftn general extensive cloud cover and flow veering to northerly
will limit temp recovery with low to mid 70s for most sans extreme
south where 80 expected.

Continued drying and eventual n-s clearing will commence tonight.
Some fog possible in low lying drainage areas especially if cooler
metmos guidance is correct.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 229 AM EDT Tue May 15 2018

Good nrn stream height suppression aloft as anticyclonic flow sfc
and aloft build through the lakes will will push pesky active
frontal zone south of the OH river Wed through Thu if not Fri too.
Gomex cutoff has trended slower to lift out into the ern OH valley,
delayed until Sat. Thus will drop entirety of pop mention through
Thu and cut back hard on Fri mention as well.

Thereafter ern bend to lift out of remains of Gomex upper low ahead
of ewd progressing long wave trough coming out of Canada this
weekend. A period of showers/thunder likely with this feature Sat
night into early Sun followed by an expansive area of high pressure
and dry weather through at least DY8 (Tue). Otherwise continued warm
with above normal temps.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 133 AM EDT Tue May 15 2018

Convective line will continue to dissipate and slowly shift SE
through the morning. Any thunder at KFWA will likely be isolated
and short-lived but 8-12Z window still looks appropriate. Latest
guidance fairly consistent in showing a brief period of fuel
alternate ceilings later this morning with diurnal cooling and
residual moisture. VFR expected by afternoon though and clouds
will gradually scatter through the late afternoon/evening.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...AGD


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