Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 161810

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
210 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Issued at 210 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018

A wintry mix will move into areas along and south of the highway 24
corridor late tonight into Saturday morning before ending. Light
snow and ice accumulations are possible. Temperatures will warm into
the 40s by afternoon with clearing skies. Pleasant weather is
expected on Sunday, with temperatures rising into the lower 50s
under bountiful sunshine.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Saturday)
Issued at 210 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Intense/deep cyclone over nw KS will open and shear ewd into the wrn
OH valley late tonight. Leading arc of warm advection driven
precipitation expected to overlap sw zones generally in the 06-12Z
timeframe which coincides closely with prior issued WW.Y. 12Z
guidance as a whole fairly agreeable although troubling detail
differences exist with extent/newd spread of measurable QPF owing to
various model progged intensity differences/timing of warm conveyor
belt shutdown locally. However doubt penetration of precip shield
north of the highway 30 corridor feasible given current dryness noted
within sfc ridge axis (ref 12Z DTX raob). However could see an
argument to spread WW.Y to include Marshall through Allen counties
in nodded agreement with RAP/HRRR trends especially in context of
much colder sfc temps invof highway 30 corridor versus highway 24
corridor. Nonetheless without a wider consensus will hold pat and
defer to evening shift.

Precip shunts rapidly sewd Sat morning with aftn clearing west-east
in the aftn. Late insolation should equate to similar max temps as


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 210 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Short amplitude ridging spreads east into the Great Lakes Sunday
ahead of nearly identical deep cyclone winding up across Kansas
again Mon night.

A substantial amount of height suppression aloft within the nrn
stream through ern Canada exits to favor this sys tracking further
south invof the OH river Mon night-Tue. However nrn extent of
significant precip shield likely to clip far srn zones with another
bout of mixed precip potential south of the highway 24 corridor, if
not further north based on a bit faster newd trending ejection and
slower intensity decline and bears close watching.

Quite thereafter through DY7 Thu as cold nrly flow redevelops
through the ern US within deep ern NOAM upper trough.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018

VFR through most of this period. Brief period of MVFR invof KFWA
around daybreak Sat assuming sufficient top down saturation and a
bit of snow otherwise low level dry wedge should hold at KSBN.


IN...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight to
     9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ Saturday for INZ0013-015-020-022>027-





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