Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 120756

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
256 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Issued at 256 AM CDT MON MAR 12 2018

Cloud cover -- and as a result, temperatures -- will be the main
challenge for today as a broad expanse of stratus shifts southward
across the region. A clear back edge to the stratus currently
evident near the Omaha area will drop into the CWA today, and
is likely to reach the KC area around 1 PM. Most notable warming
will be delayed until early afternoon, then several hours of
afternoon diurnal temperature rises should take highs to near 50
degrees across the northwestern quadrant of the CWA. Further to
the southeast, temperatures will be slower to warm and may top out
in the 40s. Skies will clear for the evening CWA-wide, but some
thin low-level moisture may provide at least scattered cloud cover
during the overnight and early morning hours, possibly having an
impact of holding temperatures a degree or two warmer than the
consensus guidance.

In the medium-range, the focus will be fire weather potential when
temperatures begin to climb and increasing low-level moisture lags
behind. Wednesday is the first potential very high fire danger
day, with RHs currently progged to drop into the 25 to 30 percent
range and sustained afternoon winds possibly reaching 15 mph.
Breezier conditions are possible Thursday but moisture should
start to increase as well, then increasing RHs and rain chances
for the weekend may start to lessen wildfire concerns.

A slightly more active weekend is possible; however, long-range
model solutions continue to vary wildly and lend very little
confidence to any one solution. At this time, precipitation looks
possible from Thursday night through Friday, and again Sunday
through early next week, but a washout is certainly not expected
and most periods will be dry. Temperatures will be generally above
normal, but will depend on the timing and incidence of cloud cover
and potential precipitation.


.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2018

MVFR cigs to continue through sunrise with rather quick
improvements back to VFR expected shortly thereafter. Northwest
winds of 5-10 kts to dominate through the day under clearing skies




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