Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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868
FXUS63 KICT 210001
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
Issued by National Weather Service TOPEKA KS
700 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

This afternoon areas of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
persisted across much of southeast KS as a mid-level shortwave
tracked northeastward across the area with a frontal boundary
remaining fairly stationary across far southeast KS.  This ongoing
precipitation resulted in overcast skies through much of the day,
which kept afternoon high temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s
from west to east across the outlook area.  Main focus for the
remainder of this afternoon into early this evening is for
thunderstorm development along this boundary in extreme southeast
KS, where modest instability and shear were present with little to
no CIN. While the better potential for these storms looks to be just
east of the CWA, any storms that do develop have to potential to
become strong to severe with hail and strong winds being the primary
hazards.

This system will exit east of the area this evening as a mid-level
ridge begins to build across the central U.S. with surface high
pressure settling into the region.  With the center of the surface
high over central KS by early Monday morning, the combination of
light winds and moisture from the recent rainfall may result in some
areas of patchy fog developing before sunrise (especially in low-
lying areas or near bodies of water). Otherwise, expect dry
conditions for Monday with southerly winds helping to push high
temperatures into the 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

As surface high pressure continues to progress eastward across the
region, expect predominantly dry conditions through Tuesday, with
only some patchy slight chance PoPs as a result of weak embedded
waves developing within the mid-level ridge.  With a deepening mid-
level trough across the western U.S., models show an embedded
shortwave trough developing along the lee-side of this trough axis
and tracking northeastward into the Central Plains by mid-week. As a
result, have increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms late
Tuesday night through Wednesday.  Models show the western U.S. mid-
level trough lifting into the Northern Plains Thursday into Friday,
which will help to push a surface cold front through the area Friday
into Saturday.  This front combined with additional embedded waves
will help to support additional scattered chances for showers and
thunderstorms late week.  At this time, the potential for any strong
to severe thunderstorms with these scattered precipitation chances
through the week appear low due to models showing very weak wind
shear present.  Surface high pressure will slide into the central
U.S. behind the exiting system, resulting in a dry weekend forecast.
Temperatures through the week will remain above the seasonal normals
with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

For the 00z TAFs, areas of showers continue to develop east of the
terminals and any potential for further development is expected to
remain well east.  CIGS continue to hover around MVFR/VFR categories
at all locations.  Expecting a period of VFR to remain then with
potential for low MVFR to IFR conditions to set up as some clearing
takes place.  Still confident that most sites see restricted CIG/VIS
into the 9-14Z time frame, so have highlighted that area for
potential fog formation or at least low stratus.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HENNECKE
LONG TERM...HENNECKE
AVIATION...DRAKE



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