Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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857
FXUS63 KIND 221847
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
247 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Tue May 22 2018

A cold front will move through the area today, bringing another
chance for showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then
provide dry conditions through early Saturday. Another front and
upper system will bring rain chances Sunday into early next week.
Temperatures will remain above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...

Issued at 921 AM EDT Tue May 22 2018

No changes to max temps for now. POPs were adjusted slightly to
account for current showers.

Overall, forecast appears in pretty good shape. Fog is gradually
thinning and lifting into stratus. Convective cloud across
northern and west central counties have been generating a few
showers. As front moves in and across central Indiana late morning
to late afternoon we should see a slight uptick in shower/storm
coverage with daytime heating but less coverage than yesterday
afternoon and evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Thursday night/
Issued at 254 AM EDT Tue May 22 2018

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.

The short term will be quiet with surface high pressure building in
and upper ridging developing aloft.

Thus expect mostly clear skies most areas. Went a little above the
model blend for highs Wednesday based on recent trends. Otherwise
the initialization`s numbers are decent.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...

Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

Confidence is low in this forecast period regarding rain chance.

Models in fairly good agreement in days prior to long range
period in driving deeper moisture to Tennessee Valley into Friday
but then differ in how much and when that moisture returns north
to central Indiana.

Upper ridges east and west of us leave our area in a relative trough
minimum which suggests a low potential for isolated convection
Saturday onward.  Models have been overforecasting rainfall
coverage relative to observed rainfall of late thus will tend to
lean to drier ECMWF solution. Still, during peak heating with a
weak upper trough, isolated convection could occur Saturday and
Sunday, especially north of Indy with slightly better dynamics and
south of Indy with deeper moisture. The tropical system trying to
organize in the southern Gulf may become a player for the Ohio
Valley next Monday or Tuesday.

Temperatures will remain above normal through this period to end
the month and continue the summer-like feel for Memorial Weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 221800z TAFs/...

Issued at 1226 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

MVFR through the period with winds at or below 10 knots veering
from west to northwest then northeast overnight.

Isolated thunderstorms possible at KIND and KHUF until 19z and
KBMG until 20z.

Cold front is moving southeast across central Indiana this
afternoon. Unstable air ahead of the front has been developing
towering cumulus which should become scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms this afternoon south of the I-70 corridor.

High pressure will filter in drier air tonight and minimize any
threat for any more than light fog Wednesday morning daybreak.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...Tucek
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....Tucek
AVIATION...Tucek



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