Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 220550
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
150 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 242 PM EDT Thu Jun 21 2018

Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will result in some
much needed rain for the end of the week as a low pressure system
rotates over the Mid Mississippi Valley. The core of this system
will move into central Indiana tomorrow, but bands rotating around
and ahead of it could start impacting the forecast area by this
evening. Meanwhile, a stationary boundary extending from Illinois
to the Delmarva will be an additional source of convective
development through tonight. As the aforementioned system moves
farther east on Saturday, there will be a bit of a reprieve in the
active pattern before another round of showers and thunderstorms
enter from the south on Saturday night. After that, brief ridging
will bring dry conditions early in the extended period, followed
by more showers and thunderstorms late in the period with an upper
trough.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...

Issued at 242 PM EDT Thu Jun 21 2018

The main focus of the near term period will be convective
potential.

Currently, widespread showers/isolated thunderstorms are drifting
across northeast portions of central Indiana with more isolated
activity elsewhere due to a stationary boundary in the area. These
slow moving showers are creating an increased flood threat for the
near term period, especially over the northern counties.

Meanwhile, focus is also on a line of convective activity over
Illinois that has been generating severe weather over the last few
hours. With a little bit of clearing between that line and the
current convection over central Indiana, there could be enough
time for some weak destabilization. So, will not completely rule
out the threat for isolated severe storms this evening into
tonight across central Indiana, will have to continue to monitor
that line.

In addition, temperatures tonight will generally be in the mid to
upper 60s, did not deviate from latest blended initialization.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tomorrow through Sunday/...

Issued at 242 PM EDT Thu Jun 21 2018

The main focus of the short term period will be the threat for
flooding along with showers and thunderstorms.

A broad low pressure system rotating over northern
Missouri/southern Iowa will track into central Indiana tomorrow,
keeping high rain chances in the forecast along with the threat
for isolated severe at times. PWAT values will continue to be near
1.5 inches, so flash flooding will still be a threat.

Activity will taper off though by Saturday as that system moves
farther east, and there will be a bit of a lull for Saturday night
before additional showers and thunderstorms approach from the
south on Sunday.

Temperatures through the period will generally be at or slightly
below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through Thursday)...

Issued at 150 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

Forecast confidence is high. The GFS and European models have come
into good alignment, which has not always been true recently.

In particular, both models have high pressure controlling Indiana
weather into Monday night. After that agreement is not quite so
strong, but they both indicate a chance or slight chance of rain
most of the time.  Errors from consensus should be mainly 10 percent
or less for POPs and 3 degrees or less for temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 22/06Z TAFs/...
Issued at 1150 PM EDT Thu Jun 21 2018

Conditions vary across the sites late this evening from VFR to
IFR. All sites will likely deteriorate if they haven`t already to
MVFR or worse later tonight into Friday.

Vertically stacked closed low pressure will be pushing through the
area much of the period, with showers, storms, and low ceilings
all threats. Visibilities may be MVFR at times in precipitation.

Winds will be variable less than 10KT throughout the period.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...Nield


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