Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 180353

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1153 PM EDT Sun Jun 17 2018

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 322 PM EDT Sun Jun 17 2018

High pressure will keep it hot and humid through early next week.
Meanwhile, a frontal system will drop slowly south across the area
during the middle of the weak and then remain close by through next
weekend. This will result in periodic unsettled weather.


.NEAR TERM /Tonight and Monday/...

Issued at 322 PM EDT Sun Jun 17 2018

The main concerns tonight will be the heat index and pop up

As was the case yesterday, the strong instability and weak cap have
resulted in a few short-lived pop up thunderstorms, despite the area
enveloped by the broad upper ridge. Moderate to towering cu from
visible satellite and the High Resolution Rapid Refresh support
isolated thunderstorms through 01z-02z. After that, look for clear
skies and muggy conditions the remainder of the night.

The heat index has been barely below the Heat Advisory criteria of
105 degrees, so will just keep hitting the heat high on the
Hazardous Weather Outlook, Weather Story and Special Weather
Statement. The heat index will be at or above 90 degrees as late as
9 pm. Tomorrow looks very similar with blend highs in the lower to
middle 90s and heat indices just below 105. Would also not rule out
more pop up storms, but for now will keep ir dry.


.SHORT TERM /Monday through Wednesday/...
Issued at 322 PM EDT Sun Jun 17 2018

Thunderstorm timing and chances will be the main issue for the short
term, although the heat will continue to be an issue on Tuesday.

Models in reasonable agreement that an approaching upper low will
shunt the upper ridge to the southeastern states by Wednesday. This
will allow a front to drop down from the north. The front should be
near by Tuesday and stall nearby shortly after. The blend brings
chances PoPs in across areas near and north of Interstate 70 Monday
night and then increasing chances starting Tuesday across the entire
forecast area. The models vary with timing, and confidence in any
one of their solutions is not high, so will accept the blend. Plenty
of instability will be around for thunder. However, shear will be
weak, so severe storms do not look likely.

With widespread convection around on Wednesday, the blend highs only
in the 80s look reasonable. However, lower 90s look good for Tuesday.


.LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...

Issued at 215 PM EDT Sun Jun 17 2018

A very different weather pattern will be setting up for late this
work week and next weekend.

The ECMWF suggests a lingering...stalled lower level boundary and
broad...weak low pressure in place across Ohio...Indiana and
Illinois. This will act as a point of convergence and showers ans
storm development on Wednesday night through Thursday Night. With
a warm and humid air mass in place...we will be unable to rule
shower/storm chances out. Additional clouds and some expected
scattered rain showers/storms should result in cooler temperatures

On Friday through Sunday...the ECMWF suggests an upper low diving
out of the north central Plains states...slowly pushing toward and
crossing Central Indiana through the weekend. Once again,,,given
these upper dynamics and a lingering lower level warm
front...showers and storm chances will need to be included in the
forecast next weekend. Again...clouds and possible rain should
result in temperatures only at or slightly above seasonal normals.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 18/06Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 1152 PM EDT Sun Jun 17 2018

VFR conditions will continue to prevail for the duration of the
TAF period with southwest winds of 6 to 11 kts.





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