199
FXUS63 KIND 021553
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1153 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A much drier week ahead with a warming trend back to the low 90s
by late week

- Heat indices approaching 100 degrees this weekend

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast Sunday

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 907 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Surface analysis late this morning shows large and broad high
pressure centered over SRN MO and NRN AR. This large high extended
its influence from upstate NY, across Indiana to Texas. Aloft, water
vapor showed ridging in place over the Rockies with lee side NW flow
streaming from the northern plains into the Ohio valley. GOES16 shows
clear skies across Central Indiana, although an exception were a few
high CI within the Wabash Valley.

Ongoing forecast appears in good shape as Central Indiana will remain
under the influence of the surface high through the afternoon.
Forecast soundings hint at some CU development this afternoon as
temperatures reach the middle 80s. Highs should range from 86 to 89
across the forecast area, and the ongoing forecast handles this well.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Ridging and high pressure will be the dominant weather influence
over the state for the rest of the week, keeping conditions hot and
dry. For today, low level ridge axis is still to the west of the
region with light northwesterly surface flow advecting in relatively
drier air while preventing Gulf moisture from surging northward.
Ample solar heating and deep low level mixing this afternoon will
promote highs a few degrees warmer than yesterday, in the mid to
upper 80s. ACARs soundings shows a very dry atmospheric profile, so
expect afternoon humidity to be quite a bit drier than what is
expected for early July. Dew points early this morning have already
dropped into the upper 50s in some spots and may remain in the 50s
this afternoon as drier air mixes down to the surface.

Clear skies and light winds will result in another pleasant night
tonight for all of Central Indiana as temperatures drop into the mid
to upper 60s. The low level ridge axis pushes overhead, resulting in
moisture slowly advecting back into the region on from the western
side of the surface high and therefore warmer overnight lows than
the previous night.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Another stretch of summertime heat continues through the weekend for
all of Central Indiana. While conditions are not expected to be as
oppressive as they were last week, both humidity and temperatures
will be on the rise over the coming days.

Strong ridging develops across the Central and Northern Plains this
slowly slides eastward this weekend. The low and upper ridge axis
remain to the west midweek, keeping the core of the heat and
humidity further west as well, but still maintaining relatively warm
and dry conditions locally. The ridge axis moves overhead Friday
then slides east of the region, resulting in a gradual warming and
moistening trend as the core of the heat and humidity push closer to
the state. Expect each day to be a few degrees warmer and more humid
than the previous day in this pattern with highs in the upper 80s to
near on Thursday, then lower 90s likely for the 4th of July and into
the weekend. Dew points may reach or exceed 70 degrees again,
especially by Saturday, resulting in heat indices approaching the
100 degree mark again during the afternoon hours.

Large-scale ridging looks to break down over the weekend with
guidance showing a weak trough and cold front approaching from the
northwest by Sunday. Latest guidance has slowed down the eastward
progression of a trough and associated low pressure system moving
into the Upper Great Lakes this weekend, keeping conditions
relatively hot and dry through at least Saturday. Guidance this
morning keeps the threat for showers and thunderstorms to the west
until during the day Sunday, whereas last night guidance had storms
coming in Saturday night. In these large scale blocking patterns, it
is common for longer range guidance to struggling with how ridging
breaks down and typically tries to bring in precipitation too soon.
Would not be surprised to see future model runs further slow down
the incoming trough and frontal boundary. For now, keeping chance
wording for storms on Sunday and adding Likely wording for
precipitation on Monday based on latest trends. The pattern going
into next week looks a tad cooler with more chance for showers and
storms as ridging breaks down and a more progressive pattern sets up
with numerous weaker waves passing through the qausi-zonal jet
aloft.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1153 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Impacts:

- None

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period as high pressure
will be the dominant weather influence over the region. Satellite
imagery shows clear skies this afternoon with wispy CI found across
Central Indiana. Convective temperatures being reached is allowing
some sct CU development. All of these clouds will be at VFR heights.

Clouds and winds will diminish this evening and overnight as heating
is lost. VFR will continue.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Puma
SHORT TERM...CM
LONG TERM...CM
AVIATION...Puma