Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 222257

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
657 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 322 PM EDT Tue May 21 2018

High pressure will build in behind a departing cold front tonight.
This will provide dry weather through at least Friday. Then, another
frontal system will move through the area and stall late this
weekend into next week. This will result in periodic mainly daytime
thunderstorm chances over all or parts of central Indiana by
Saturday.  Temperatures will continue to be above normal with
afternoon highs in the 80s.


.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today and Tonight/...
Issued at 322 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

The only concern for the near term is timing of the exit of the
isolated thunderstorms.

The High Resolution Rapid Refresh suggests a few storms could linger
through 00z along and ahead of an upper trough. The cold front will
be southeast of the area prior to that. So, will keep small PoPs
near and east of Interstate 69 through 00z and then go dry tonight.
Model rh time sections suggest little in the way of cloud cover.

It will be cooler tonight behind the front with blend lows in the
middle 50s north to around 60 south.


.SHORT TERM.../Wednesday through Friday/
Issued at 322 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

Models are in good agreement that high pressure will dominate the
weather through Friday. This lends high confidence in dry and warm
weather per the blend. There will also be little cloud cover per the
model rh time sections and cu development progs.

Confidence is high on blend temperatures to within a few degrees.
Look for well above normal highs in the upper 80s by Friday as weak
southerly flow kicks in on the back side of the surface high.


.LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...

Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

Confidence is low in this forecast period regarding rain chance.

Models in fairly good agreement in days prior to long range
period in driving deeper moisture to Tennessee Valley into Friday
but then differ in how much and when that moisture returns north
to central Indiana.

Upper ridges east and west of us leave our area in a relative trough
minimum which suggests a low potential for isolated convection
Saturday onward.  Models have been overforecasting rainfall
coverage relative to observed rainfall of late thus will tend to
lean to drier ECMWF solution. Still, during peak heating with a
weak upper trough, isolated convection could occur Saturday and
Sunday, especially north of Indy with slightly better dynamics and
south of Indy with deeper moisture. The tropical system trying to
organize in the southern Gulf may become a player for the Ohio
Valley next Monday or Tuesday.

Temperatures will remain above normal through this period to end
the month and continue the summer-like feel for Memorial Weekend.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 23/00Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 655 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

VFR conditions will prevail for the duration of the TAF period
with north/northeasterly winds generally at 4 to 8 kts. The
exception will be this evening when they are sustained from 12 to
14 kts with some gusts up to 18 kts.





LONG TERM....Tucek
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