Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 210817
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
417 AM EDT Thu Jun 21 2018

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 357 AM EDT Thu Jun 21 2018

A stalled frontal boundary will move north through the area today
and tonight as a warm front. Then Friday a surface low will move
through central Indiana and then bring a cold front with it. This
will move off to the east Saturday allowing for dry weather to
return briefly Saturday night. Late Saturday night and through
Sunday another frontal system will lift out of the plains and
bring more chances for showers and thunderstorms to the area. By
Sunday night though high pressure will build in from the north and
return dry weather to the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...

Issued at 357 AM EDT Thu Jun 21 2018

A front stalled over the southwestern counties today will bring
showers and thunderstorms across central Indiana. This front will
slowly move north through the area today and into tonight. Radar
echoes early this morning will move off to the east within the
next couple of hours and then more widespread showers and
thunderstorms will move in from southwest to northeast.
Temperatures will be somewhat limited today with extensive cloud
cover throughout the day and showers and storms. Instability will
be sufficient for storms, and there is a chance for a little more
organization to the storms today in the south as a cyclonically
curved upper jet sets up just south of the area. A few strong to
severe storms will be possible with damaging winds the main
threat. Heavy rain will continue to be a concern as well with slow
moving storms and pwats of 1.7 to 2.0 inches or over 150% of
normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday night/...

Issued at 357 AM EDT Thu Jun 21 2018

Storm chances will continue tonight as a warm front pushes north
through the area. Friday the surface low will traverse central Indiana.
While upper shear will be lacking and best severe chances will be
south of the area, instability will be present and have some
concerns about localized surface vorticity enhancement within the
surface low. May have to watch for some funnel clouds or brief
weak spin ups. Heavy rainfall will continue to be a threat with
slow storm motions, but pwat values will be dropping back to near
normal and that will at least mean less moisture is available.

By Friday night the surface low will be moving off to the east,
and late Friday night should see some good drying out of precip
chances from the west. Saturday into Saturday night still looking
at some precip chances but these will be lower than current.
Temperatures will run near to perhaps a bit below normal during
the short term with the upper low approaching and then moving
overhead.

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Thu Jun 21 2018

Ensembles have come into better agreement tonight on the upcoming
weather pattern in the extended. Trailing end of the upper trough
that is expected to affect the area during the short term will be
in the process of moving over the local area on Sunday. Will keep
some PoPs in the forecast for Sunday to cover this feature.

Upper ridging is expected to temporarily move over the area early
next week, before the next trough approaches from the Plains towards
the middle of next week. Will go with a dry forecast for Monday and
Tuesday under the upper ridge, and add chance PoPs for Wednesday as
the next trough approaches.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 210900Z KIND TAF Update/...
Issued at 409 AM EDT Thu Jun 21 2018

Area of scattered convection currently pushing off to the
northeast of the KIND terminal. Should be a relative lull in
shower activity over the next several hours. Short term model
guidance suggests an area of fairly strong lift may move over the
KIND terminal later this morning, which should result in enhanced
chances for rain and convective potential towards the mid morning
hours.

Some areas of MVFR ceilings 020-030 have developed recently, and
short term model data suggests these ceilings may become more
widespread with time, so will bump up the arrival time of these
ceilings on the update.

Previous discussion follows.

VFR expected for the first several hours of the period. MVFR
conditions, and perhaps some brief IFR, will develop later tonight
into Thursday as showers and storms overspread the area with
passage of a frontal system.

Will limit convective mention to VCTS owing mainly to timing and
coverage concerns. Expect activity to be mainly showers with
embedded thunder.

Ceilings will lower as the frontal system passes. Appears most
areas will remain MVFR but IFR may occur briefly.

Visibilities will be unrestricted outside of precipitation.

Winds through the period will be 10KT or less, occasionally
variable.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...Nield/JAS



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