Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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739
FXUS63 KIND 191948
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
348 PM EDT Tue Jun 19 2018

.UPDATE...
The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM Sections have been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 336 PM EDT Tue Jun 19 2018

A cold front has moved south into or near our forecast area. This
front has brought chances for thunderstorms into the region.
Expect the front to meander around the forecast area...continuing
the thunderstorm chances through Friday night when the front is
expected to exit the area. Maximum temperatures are expected to
drop from the 90s that we have seen recently...to the upper 70s
to middle 80s to finish out the week.


&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...

Issued at 336 PM EDT Tue Jun 19 2018

The tonight timeframe begins with ongoing convection across the
forecast area...primarily over northern and central portions.
Expect this these showers and thunderstorms to decrease in
coverage as the sun sets and loss of heating occurs. However,
could see continued convection along and near the front which
looks to settle across the northern reaches of the forecast area
or just north of the forecast area tonight. Weak winds aloft will
continue to provide an atmosphere where shear is limited...thus
limiting the severe potential in any remaining storms. An isolated
damaging wind gust cannot be ruled out completely though. Staying
a couple to a few degrees above guidance for lows tonight.


&&

.SHORT TERM /Wednesday through Friday/...

Issued at 336 PM EDT Tue Jun 19 2018

In the short term, the aforementioned frontal boundary is
forecast to meander in and near the forecast area through much of
the period. This will act to keep chances for showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast during every period. With continued
weak winds aloft, limited wind shear, and PWATs in the 1.70-2.50
inches range...the main threat through Thursday looks to be the
potential for flooding stemming from slow moving, heavy-raining
thunderstorms especially if some training occurs near the front.
On Friday, the front is expected to lift north of the area as a
warm front as an upper level trough and associated surface low
pressure approaches our western counties. As the upper trough
approaches, mid to upper level winds are expected to
increase...providing a potentially better environment for
organized convection. At this time, there seems to be at least a
low-end risk for severe weather on Friday.

Temp-wise, as the upper trough presses from the upper and central
high plains states into Missouri/Kansas area...the upper ridge
over the Ohio Valley will be shunted southward. Couple that with
expected increasing sky cover and precipitation chances leading to
a recipe for max temps decreasing as we progress through the week.
Thursday and Friday look to be the most mild days of the
timeframe. Stuck fairly close to the regional initialization
blend.


&&

.LONG TERM /Friday Night through Tuesday/...

Issued at 203 PM EDT Tue Jun 19 2018

Active weather pattern to set up for this weekend. ECMWF shows a
departing upper low exiting the area on Friday night and early
Saturday. This will lead to more showers and storm chances at that
time. A brief break will be expected on Saturday night as weak
ridging and high pressure builds across Indiana in the wake of the
departing upper low. Forecast builder may include some afternoon
pops on Sunday due to a lingering lower level boundary in the
area...but confidence is low.

Ridging and dry weather is expected on Sunday night through Monday
as suggested by the ECMWF. However by Monday night and Tuesday
the Ridging exits east and a trough over the plains states is
expected to nudge eastward...brining more moisture back to
Indiana. This will result in a return of precipitation chances to
Central Indiana then.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 191800Z Tafs/...

Issued at 102 PM EDT Tue Jun 19 2018

VFR Conditions will persist for most of the afternoon. However as
showers and storms continue to persist through the late afternoon
and evening...brief MVFR to IFR conditions are possible with any
TSRA that strikes an TAF site.

More showers and storms will be possible overnight and again any
storm striking a TAF site may produce MVFR to IFR Conditions.

A warm and humid air mass remains across Central Indiana. WSR88D
KIND shows scattered showers and storms developing...mainly north
if I-70. These storms are diurnal in nature and may become more
numerous as the afternoon progresses and convective temperatures
are reached. This evening storms should disappear late this
evening as heating is lost.

A lingering frontal boundary still looks to remain in place across
Central Indiana overnight. Convection upstream could trigger
additional showers and storms overnight...but confidence in this
is low. Will have a minimal mention for now. Low pressure
lingering in the area on Wednesday and the similar warm and humid
air mass will lead to more diurnal showers and storms on
Wednesday.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MRD
NEAR TERM...MRD
SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM....Puma
AVIATION...JP



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