


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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837 FXUS63 KIWX 070956 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 556 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Continued very warm and humid through the rest of this week with highs in the 80s. - Frequent chances for showers and thunderstorms after Tuesday. Severe storms are not expected. - The best chances for storms are Friday and Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Storms from last night have nearly completely dissipated. The storms had formed in the area of a weak upper level disturbance in the vicinity of a somewhat diffuse cold front. The front has been moving slowly south and will continue to drift south today. Thunderstorms are possible ahead of south-moving front today - basically east and south of Fort Wayne. Severe storms are not expected but locally heavy rainfall is possible. Rainfall rates last night up to 3"/hr were observed with the heaviest rainfall reports around 2". These rainfall rates and amounts are possible again today as an axis of very high precipitable water around 2.0 resides ahead of the front and in the vicinity of the front. The airmass behind the front was slightly cooler over northwest Indiana and far southwest Lower Michigan. As far as the rest of the week, an upper level ridge will remain anchored over the southwest CONUS. Energy in the form of disturbances and short wave trofs coming zonally from the west and also from the northwest will combine to keep an active pattern over the Upper Great Lakes region. Thunderstorms will be possible each day after Tuesday. The airmass will slowly modify and allow high temperatures to reach the mid to upper 80s by Friday. Corresponding maximum heat indices Friday should reach the lower 90s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 544 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Cold frontal boundary is currently hung up with a northeasterly to southwesterly orientation over KFWA and has allowed for the development of IFR/LIFR conditions in light drizzle and mist for KFWA. With further slow progression of the front southeastward the expectation is we will see a slow improvement through 15z Mon becoming MVFR conditions in lowered cigs. KSBN will also continue to see lowered cigs in IFR category through 15z Mon and into MVFR category with slight lifting of cigs. VFR conditions will return to KSBN by 21z Mon into the remaining TAF period while KFWA looks to become VFR around 22z Mon. However, KFWA vsbys will begin to drop once again to MVFR in mist around 05z Tue and drop further into IFR and LIFR in mist and fog after 07z Tue. This may be too aggressive but definitely plausible with the moist low levels. Will continue to monitor for this scenario in subsequent shifts. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for INZ103. OH...None. MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ177-277. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for LMZ043. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LMZ046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Skipper AVIATION...Andersen