Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 210419 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1119 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Issued at 340 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

H5 analysis from this morning had a fairly low amplitude
pattern across the CONUS. However, numerous shortwaves were noted
across the lower 48 and have led to active weather, particularly
across the eastern half of the CONUS. Across the eastern CONUS,
shortwaves were noted over the upper Ohio valley as well as across
the lower Mississippi valley. Further west, a shortwave was located
over northeastern Kansas with another upstream shortwave noted over
Wyoming. Further north, a tandem of shortwaves were noted from
eastern Montana into eastern Saskatchewan. Further west, a strong
shortwave was noted from swrn Washington state south into swrn
Oregon. Current WV imagery, continues to note an area of low
pressure around 1000 miles west of the northern coast of California.
At the surface: Weak high pressure was located over northern
Nebraska. Skies were partly to mostly cloudy this afternoon as
steepening mid level lapse rates have led to the development of CU
and Alto CU across the forecast area with isolated showers.
Temperatures as of 3 PM CDT ranged from 36 at O`Neill to 54 at North


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Tonight and Wednesday: Skies will quickly clear by mid
evening as we loose surface heating and the current steep lapse
rates relax. Looking at the latest NAM12 and to a lesser degree, the
HRRR soln overnight, yields a threat for fog across the north and
northeastern forecast area overnight. This seems plausible given the
degree of snow melt in the north today and light winds which are
forecast overnight. Will keep the mention on the patchy side for now
as the statistical guidance is void of fog attm. For Wednesday, a
warm front will begin to push into swrn, then central Nebraska.
Temps will warm into the 50s tomorrow with lower 60s in swrn
Nebraska. Like this afternoon, mid level lapse rates increase,
becoming nearly dry adiabatic, in swrn Nebraska late Wednesday
afternoon. Cloud cover was increased in swrn Nebraska. For now, will
leave the forecast dry, but wouldn`t be surprised if a stray shower
or two develops in far swrn Nebraska Weds. afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Mid range...Wednesday night through Friday...Ridging aloft will
build into the central CONUS Wednesday night into Thursday night
before shifting east of the area on Friday. Highs will reach the
middle 50s to lower 70s both days. Mainly dry conditions are
expected, however, there will be a small chance for showers across
northern Nebraska Thursday night, as a weak disturbance lifts across
the Dakotas. Weak lift in association with this feature will track
along the SD/Nebr. border, thus the low pcpn chances.

Long term...Friday night through Tuesday...The threat for
precipitation will increase Friday night as a lead shortwave
tracks east of the central Rockies. Better moisture is across
central and eastern Kansas where the GFS pushes surface dew points
into the lower 60s, however, sfc dew points do reach the middle
40s Friday afternoon. With steep lapse rates present, cannot rule
out thunderstorms and have inserted them into the fcst for late
Friday afternoon/Friday evening. Another shot of precipitation
will track through the forecast area Saturday night followed by a
stronger system on Sunday. This system will be associated with an
arctic cold front so the mode of precipitation will change from
rain Saturday night, to snow on Sunday night with cooler readings
expected for Monday and Tuesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1118 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

VFR is generally expected across western and north central
Nebraska overnight through Wednesday evening.

Weak high pressure will build into the region overnight. Patchy
fog is expected late tonight and Wednesday morning (08z-15z)
affecting areas along and east of highway 183. This could result
in areas of IFR/LIFR. Once this lifts 15z-17z, VFR will become
widespread. High cloudiness is expected Wednesday evening; the
result of the storm system affecting Srn and Cntl CA.




SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...CDC is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.