Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 230542

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1242 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

For tonight, a weak low pressure system will pass just to the west
of central Nebraska. The majority of any thunderstorms will remain
across Wyoming and the western Panhandle of Nebraska tonight.
However, there is a very low chance that a few isolated storms and
showers will move into the forecast area. The best locations to see
storms will be north of a line from Oshkosh to Ainsworth. The best
timing for storms will be between 8pm CDT and 3am CDT. There is only
a low chance that storms will become severe. Current thinking is
that severe storms will stay west of the area with only small hail
and winds up to 40 to 50 mph as the main threat across north central
Nebraska. Any storms that have developed overnight will move off out
of the area by 3am CDT to 5am CDT. Clouds and overnight rain will
keep temperatures on the mild side with lows only dropping into the
low to mid 60s. Slightly cooler temperatures in the upper 50s are
possible across the eastern Panhandle.

For Wednesday, a break in active weather returns for most of the day
before another round of thunderstorms arrive Wednesday evening.
Partly cloudy skies across much of the region will allow high
temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 80s across the board.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Thunderstorm chances are in place Wednesday evening and Thursday
evening. The upper level low lifting through the nrn Rockies is
expected to produce sufficient forcing for scattered thunderstorms.
Once this upper low lifts out, Friday, only isolated chances are in
place until Sunday night and Monday night.

The severe weather potential appears to be marginal. Winds aloft are
generally weak, 25kts or less at 500mb, in the areas we are
primarily expecting storm development. One exception could be
northwest Nebraska Wednesday evening where a belt of 35kt 500mb
winds will reside. This is near the track of the upper low lifting
through the nrn Rockies. The primary hazard in most areas continues
to be strong outflow wind gusts from clusters of thunderstorms which
the NAMnest model shows developing late Wednesday and the NAM12
model shows developing Thursday evening.

A new upper low will move in to the wrn U.S. this weekend. At the
same time, an upper low will stall over the upper Gulf coast. The
two systems will produce a blocking ridge across Nebraska which
should produce mostly dry and very warm weather Friday through
Monday. There are chances for storms Sunday night with the approach
of the West coast/Rockies upper low.

The models have come in warmer with the temperature forecast for
highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s Thursday through Sunday. This
could still be a degree or two too cool in some areas if the h700mb
temperatures rise to 12-15C as shown by the GFS, ECM and Canadian


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Scattered thunderstorms will continue to move out of the Panhandle
and continue along the Nebraska South Dakota border through the
early morning hours. Thunderstorms remain below severe limits with
some gusts to around 28kts having been reported. Low level wind
shear will be possible over southern Nebraska through the early
morning hours. Southeast winds will become southerly on Wednesday
and will gust to around 25kts.




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