


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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644 FXUS63 KLBF 130843 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 343 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible across the southeastern counties near a weak frontal boundary this afternoon/early evening. - A cold front move into the area Tuesday, bringing a return of thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening, some possibly strong to severe across north central Nebraska. - Much below average temperatures in the 70s to near 80 Wednesday and Thursday. - Active weather returns Friday and Saturday with highs back into the 80s, with continued threats for showers and thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 343 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Warmer temperatures return to the region today with H5 height rises and a weak surface frontal boundary reaches to near a Broken Bow through O`Neill line by late this afternoon. Highs near 90 to the low 90s, which is about 10 to 12 degrees warmer than yesterday. Dewpoints will fall into the upper 40s behind the boundary to the low to mid 60s in front. During peak heating, some towering cumulus is expected to develop and could see isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development after 3pm CDT near and east of a Stapleton through Butte line, with a propagation to the southeast. A few of the CAMs support this, but not most, so POPS remain limited to 15 to 20 percent in line with the previous forecast. A Marginal Risk for severe storms is forecast by SPC across portions of Minnesota and southeast South Dakota, to just into eastern portions of Boyd, Holt and Wheeler County. Deep layer shear and forcing along the surface boundary will be weaker than to our northeast, yet still supporting of storms briefly becoming strong with hail and strong wind gusts possible. Any activity should end by 8pm, with the loss of heating. Winds light and variable to light southeast tonight with mostly clear skies and lows 60 to 65. Monday will be the warmest day this week across the area as highs top out in the low to mid 90s. Surface low pressure deepening across Wyoming and Colorado will increase the surface pressure gradient with southerly winds 15 to 25 mph across the western Sandhills and 10 to 20 mph further east. Could see a few storms develop and move into northwest Sheridan County late afternoon. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 343 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Isolated to scattered thunderstorms develop to our west, from southeast Wyoming into the western panhandle and Black Hills. May see a few storms move across the northwest Sandhills Monday night as a fairly strong cold front moves through southeast Montana. A few strong storms may affect the northern panhandle, including northern Sheridan County during the evening. A more active weather pattern returns Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night as an upper trough crosses the northern Plains into the western Great Lakes. Tuesday afternoon and evening, a Marginal Risk for severe storms is forecast across north central Nebraska as a cold front drops southward. Steep low and midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization, and thunderstorms should develop by late afternoon with upscale growth possible into the evening. Deep-layer flow is not forecast to be overly strong, with effective shear around 25-30 kt. Given favorable thermodynamic profiles, this should be more than sufficient for scattered organized cells capable of produce strong gusts and hail. Wednesday into Wednesday night, 20-30 POPs exist for showers and thunderstorms, though the threat for severe weather remains uncertain. The cold front should advance into Kansas Wednesday night, with cooler highs and mainly dry conditions Thursday. This front should then should lift north as a warm front Thursday night, with chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday night through Saturday. Highs appear poised to return to the 80s Friday and Saturday, as a flattened upper ridge strengthens across the southeastern and southern U.S. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through Sunday evening. Skies remain clear or mostly clear with ceilings well above 10 kft. Winds will generally remain under 10 knots, however, they are expected to change from the south to the northwest by tomorrow afternoon before changing back to east northeast during the evening. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Roberg LONG TERM...Roberg AVIATION...Kulik