Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 200819

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
319 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Radar and Satellite show a strong area of lift and deformation
across wrn Colo at 07z which will take several hours to reach wrn
Neb later this morning. A blend of the GFS and rapid refresh models
was the basis for the rain forecast today. This delays the onset of
rain for about 6 hours from the previous forecast. A model blend was
the basis for the rain forecast tonight. Snow levels fall to around
3250 feet with 1 to 2 inches accumulation across wrn Neb overnight.
The RAP snow forecast is trending toward the heavy hitting NAM which
WPC set aside as an outlier solution. The rain/snow forecast tonight
uses a blend of the NAM and other models.

The temperature forecast uses bias corrected model data and guidance
for highs in the 40s and 50s today and lows in the 30s tonight. This
produces highs and lows cooler than the straight model-guidance

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Active weather continues on Saturday morning as a low pressure
system tracks across the central Plains. Any snow that develops
overnight Friday will easily melt after sunrise Saturday as
precipitation changes back to all rain. Precipitation will be slow
to exit north central Nebraska. By Saturday evening most of the rain
will be east of the region as high pressure begins to build in
behind the departing low. Temperatures on Saturday will remain cool
with highs on Saturday only rising into the upper 40s and low 50s.

Dry weather returns on Saturday night and continuing through Monday
morning as weak upper level ridging builds across the western US.
Milder temperatures return with Sunday highs in the upper 50s to low
60s. Monday highs are expected to rise into the low to mid 60s for
the entire forecast area.

A short wave trough will pivot through the upper Plains bringing the
next chance of precipitation to the region on Monday night and
Tuesday. Rain will move out of the area by late Tuesday afternoon
with dry weather returning for Wednesday through the end of the
week. Tuesday will see temperatures in the 50s before highs rise
back into the 60s for the end of the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Latest satellite imagery and surface obs shows broken high clouds
overhead and southeast winds with occasional gusts up to 20-25
mph in western NEB. Areas will start to see impacts from the next
weather system early tomorrow morning. Mid-level clouds are
expected to develop early morning and spread eastward tomorrow.
Ceilings then anticipated to lower to MVFR late morning-early
afternoon in the eastern Panhandle and far western NEB. Elsewhere,
ceilings lowering over time to low-end VFR (less than 7 kft)
during the afternoon. MVFR ceilings are expected to spread
gradually across the remainder of southwest NEB and the western
Sandhills by late afternoon. Winds will remain southeasterly and
breezy with modest gusts during the day. Meanwhile, rain is
expected to develop in the eastern Panhandle and far western NEB
mid-late morning then spread east across the remainder of
southwest NEB into the central Sandhills during the afternoon.




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