Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 210844

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
344 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Radar is finally beginning to fill in with rain. The RAP model
suggests a rain snow mix along and west of highway 61 for a few
hours this morning with little accumulation. The RAP would suggest
the rain will weaken this morning leaving either drizzle or very
light rain on and off this afternoon before ending early this

A blend of the rapid refresh models was the basis for the
temperature and rain forecast today. Blended guidance was the basis
for the low temperature forecast tonight. The models suggest some
clearing would occur.

The fog forecast tonight is uncertain but the ARW, NMM and NAM
indicate fog. There will be the usual trapped moisture in the
boundary layer and dry air will be moving in aloft supporting fog.
Low level moisture divergence will be underway with low pressure
across the South competing with low pressure across the nrn Plains.
This could support weak subsidence and clearing skies. It would
probably be best to wait for the RAP and HRRR models to get within
range and handle this aspect of the forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Shortwave ridging aloft will build across the central plains Sunday
into Monday ahead of the next upper low which will be digging
southeast into the northern rockies. A thermal ridge will also build
northward Monday ahead of the approaching Pacific cold front which
will be moving into central Wyoming by Monday evening. Expect a mild
day Monday, with highs in the 60s to near 70 degrees. These warmer
temperatures will be short lived as the cold front and upper low
drop southeast across the area Monday night into Tuesday. The ECMWF
drops the low southeast across the high plains, with the potential
for some decent QPF, but the GEFS and GFS keep a more northern track
across SD and northern NE. All models do indicate a shot decent mid
level warm air advection Monday night just ahead of the system, and
this should result in a band of rain moving eastward across the
area. Amounts up to one quarter of an inch are possible with this
first round. Models then diverge in their solutions Tuesday, with
the ECMWF tracking the upper low southeast right across our area
with an additional quarter of an inch of QPF. The other global model
(GFS) has a farther north track and little precipitation. Will keep
the likely pops confined to Monday night where there is good model
agreement, and maintain just chance pops for now on Tuesday.

The rest of the week, Wednesday and beyond, looks rather cool as
fast northwest flow develops. A disturbance drops southward from
Alberta Thursday with an associated cold front and possible


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1104 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Latest radar display shows precip moving in and developing from
southwest NEB to northwestern NEB. Meanwhile, snow is mixing in at
times also in the southeast Panhandle per NE DOT report this
evening. Current thinking is precip will continue to move in and
affect the eastern Panhandle, western and southern Sandhills, and
southwest NEB rest of tonight. Threat for snow or wintry mix is
anticipated to expand eastward to encompass along and west of
highway 61. Tomorrow, changeover back to rain there with rain
showers continue early Saturday then rain chances diminishing
during the afternoon.

Otherwise, ceilings presently range from IFR in the Panhandle to
low-end VFR (less than 7 kft) in the central Sandhills and
southwest NEB. Ceilings are anticipated to deteriorate across
southwest NEB and the Sandhills rest of tonight with IFR ceilings
anticipated in west central and southwest NEB. Slow improvement
tomorrow in terms of ceilings across much of the area with sub-VFR
ceilings prevailing (IFR-MVFR).




LONG TERM...Taylor
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