Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 151446

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
946 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Issued at 945 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

No updates needed for the ongoing quiet forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 630 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

No updates needed.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

The quiet weather pattern will continue for the short term, with
the main challenge being daytime highs and any fog potential.
Today should be a little cooler than yesterday. Surface high
pressure will continue to sag southward out of Manitoba/western
Ontario, providing a cool northeast wind flow. Countering that
will be the warm mid March sun, which tends to bring its greatest
influence over the darker pine trees in our eastern forecast area.
So once again will keep the warmest highs from Baudette to
Bemidji to Park Rapids. Mainly clear skies tonight will allow for
a fairly significant temperature drop again, especially along the
Canadian border into the Lake of the Woods region. Not expecting
much fog during this time frame.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Quiet weather will continue for eastern North Dakota and northwest
Minnesota into the weekend with precipitation chances increasing for
the region late Sunday night through Tuesday. Temperatures through
the rest of the week are expected to remain near seasonal normals
with highs in the mid 30s for eastern North Dakota and low 40s for
portions of northwest Minnesota with overnight lows in the teens and
twenties. Cooler temperatures are expected for Sunday through
Wednesday with highs in the low 30s across the region.

Model guidance remains in good agreement with the breakdown of the
upper level ridge and evolution of the first of two upper level
shortwaves later this week. Precipitation associated with this wave
and attendant surface features will remain confined mainly to the
central Plains allowing for dry conditions across eastern
ND/northwest MN for Friday and Saturday.

Precipitation chances increase heading into Sunday night through
Tuesday as the second anticipated shortwave propagates through the
northern Plains. Deterministic and ensemble guidance is in
reasonably good agreement with a broad region of precip over the
northern plains during the Sunday night to Tuesday timeframe.
Forecast soundings suggest snow as the dominant precipitation type.
Although confidence in exact snowfall totals remains low, the lack
of any obvious frontogenetical forcing suggests low snow banding
potential. Additionally, with light winds forecast overall winter
weather impacts appear to be minimal at this time. Drier conditions
are expected for Wednesday with a few flurries possible across
northeast ND and northern MN.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Great VFR flying weather.




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