Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 160450

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1150 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

How much snow wrapping around the backside of the upper low into
our southeastern counties will be the main concern for the period.

The upper low continues to rotate to our southeast, with several
vorts coming around the northwest side of the system and
approaching our area. Several bands of light snow have moved into
our southeastern counties and dissipated, with another bit of
light snow currently approaching the Park Rapids area. The high
resolution models have the possibility of light precip continuing
over our southeastern counties into tonight before the system
finally lifts further away from the region during the early
morning hours. A few of the high resolution models drop several
more inches of snow between Park Rapids and the eastern CWA
border. While this is probably overdone, it does seem that there
will be a continued chance for accumulating snow in the far
eastern tier into this evening. Will keep fairly high POPs and
another inch or so of accumulation.

The western counties will be much more tranquil with clearing
skies and temps dropping into the teens and 20s tonight. The
entire CWA will see a quiet day tomorrow as upper ridging builds
into the Plains and surface high pressure continues. Highs should
be a bit warmer than we have seen, getting into the lower 40s but
some 30s lingering in areas with more snow still on the ground.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Upper ridge overhead and high pressure at the surface on Tuesday
provides dry and mild conditions. Tuesday night into Wednesday the
next system moves into the northern plains, but there is still some
model differences as mentioned in previous discussions. The GFS
still produces the greatest QPF and impacts over eastern North
Dakota but it is less than previous runs. So there is some
convergence in the models over the last few runs to a lower QPF
event in eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota. Western and
central North Dakota have the highest risk for precipitation, as
well as areas to the south. Surface temperatures near freezing could
lead to a wintry mix falling with this system. After this system
moves out a quiet period begins with a warming trend. Temperatures
could reach into the low to even mid fifties by next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

MVFR cigs and IFR vis at KBJI is associated with light snow band
that is slowly transitioning eastward. This activity should
transition east of the terminal early in the TAF period, but
timing could be a little slower than guidance indicates.
Stratus/fog may develop at KDVL early Monday morning, but there is
very little consensus. Currently VFR is expected at remaining
terminals in eastern ND and northwest MN through the TAF period,
with prevailing winds generally 10kt or less.




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