Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 151530

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1030 AM CDT Tue May 15 2018

Issued at 1030 AM CDT Tue May 15 2018

Warm and breezy/windy conditions are expected today. Increased
winds slightly in the central and southern Red River Valley. As a
result, issued a special weather statement for near critical fire
conditions as far south as Cass/Clay counties. For more info, see
Fire Weather Discussion.

UPDATE Issued at 644 AM CDT Tue May 15 2018

Updated for current temps...a few spots dropping into the lower-
mid 30s.   No changes otherwise.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Tue May 15 2018

500 mb short wave and associated surface low will move quickly
southeast across Manitoba and into NW Ontario today. West and
southwest of this system will be an area of stronger winds...with
max sfc-850 mb winds in S Manitoba. Southern edge of stronger
winds will affect areas near the Canadian border and this area
also the driest. Wind gusts to 30 kts likely this aftn Cando to
Hallock/Roseau with 25 kt gusts DVL-GFK to near BJI. Within the
above area critical fire weather conditions will develop as RH
values drop into the teens.

Winds will  this evening as the system moves east.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Tue May 15 2018

For Wednesday night through Friday, chances for showers and
thunderstorms develop across the area as a more active pattern
develops in the Northern Plains. There is fairly good model
agreement that the current split flow regime across the CONUS will
begin to weaken as a cyclone strengthens in the Northern Rockies.
This drapes a surface trough/warm frontal boundary in the vicinity
of the international border Wednesday, pushing southward across
portions of ND and northern MN Wednesday night through Thursday
night before the boundary exits the forecast area by Saturday.

The persistence of this boundary and continued southerly flow
increasing low level moisture will yield continued chances for
showers and storms across the area from Wednesday night through at
least Friday. Recent probabilistic and deterministic model guidance
suggest some relief from recent dry conditions in this timeframe, as
many locations are expected to receive a half inch to inch of rain.
Heavier rain will be possible with thunderstorms, given precipitable
water values peaking at 1.5 inches Thursday and Friday. Thus there
is potential for a few locations to see more like 2 inches total
from this activity. Can`t completely rule out some storms developing
Wednesday night, but the better chances for organized stronger
convection appear Thursday and Thursday night. This occurs as
shortwave energy aloft passes through and higher low level moisture
and some pockets of moderate to strong deep layer shear enter the
forecast area. However, there are definitely factors inhibiting
stronger storms from developing as well...weak mid and upper level
forcing, persistent cloud cover lending to a weaker washed-out sfc
boundary, and modest lapse rates.

Looking at temperatures, expect Wednesday to be quite warm and
summer like again with highs in the upper 70s to near 90 degrees. A
cooling trend begins Thursday and persists into Saturday as areas
see cooler, northerly flow behind the system. Despite warm air
advection, cloud cover will prevent stronger diurnal heating
Thursday and Friday as well. By Saturday, much of the Northern
Plains will likely only see highs in the 60s. Behind the
aforementioned system, the rest of the weekend forecast is quiet and
dry as surface high pressure meanders through the region.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 644 AM CDT Tue May 15 2018

VFR thru the pd. Winds will turn southwest and increase in speed
today, with gusts into the 25-30kt range Grand Forks, Devils Lake
area north to the Canadian border.


Issued at 1030 AM CDT Tue May 15 2018

The Red Flag warning continues to be in effect for the northern
zones. However, did issue a Special Weather Statement for near
critical fire conditions across the central part of the forecast
area including Eddy, Barnes and east through Clay, Mahnomen, and
southern Beltrami counties. Expecting winds to be in the 15-20 mph
range...with gusts to around 25 mph at times in this area.
Otherwise, winds of 15-30 mph with gusts to 35 mph are expected
in the northern zones. Relative humidities will likely be around
15-20% area-wide.


ND...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for NDZ006>008-

MN...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001-004>009-



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