Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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078 FXUS64 KMAF 100619 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 119 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 311 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 WV imagery shows the upper trough centered over southeast Utah, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under southwest flow aloft. At the surface, a cold front lies menacingly just north of KMAF, hung up due to increasing westerlies and diurnal heating. This will allow pleasant temperatures this afternoon before the front resumes its southwesterly intrusion with loss of diurnal heating. The Latest NAM puts it down near the border by 12Z Friday. Despite this, overnight minimums should remain a couple of degrees above normal. The more pronounced cooling sets in Friday as CAA continues in the wake of the front, and clouds increase. Highs look to come in ~ 8- 10F below normal. Models are persistent in developing convection early in the lower Trans Pecos, spreading north and west during the day in upslope flow and along the front. This, along with cooler temperatures, will bring a respite to critical fire weather. Friday night, the dryline will retreat beyond KELP. The upper trough will begin approaching from the west, and large-scale ascent will expand convection westward, hopefully bringing much-=needed relief to the drought-stricken higher terrain. Lows should come in 2-4F above normal. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 311 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 We find ourselves still in the post-frontal setup on Saturday with persistent east-southeasterly flow supplying ample moisture (Td ~55- 60 CWA-wide) and shoving the dryline back near El Paso`s longitude. Meanwhile, the upper low left freely spinning across the Great Basin finally gets picked up by the jet stream and ejects towards AZ/NM. While this trough doesn`t provide much in the form of synoptic ascent, some steeping of the lapse rates could lead to some instability to work with. The stationary front draped just south/west of the Pecos Valley along with easterly upslope surface flow and southwesterly flow aloft should help get some showers and storms going as early as Saturday morning. The ensembles and NBM maintain the thinking in achieving appreciable rainfall with a 60- 80% chance of seeing at least 0.1" and 50-60% of seeing over an inch. With some steeping of the lapse rates with the approaching trough, some severe weather is possible, especially south of the stalled boundary. Surfaced based storms here could see isolated instances of large hail and strong winds. North of the stalled front, convection will still be possible but with it being elevated nature, severe weather chances will be very low (but still possible). It seems there will be 2 main round of rain this weekend associated with the ejecting trough- the first round comes Saturday morning into the early afternoon with a second round of rain for Saturday night into Sunday morning. Per usual, the highest precipitation chances and greatest rainfall totals will likely set up across the eastern Permian Basin, though areas of convective rainfall could lead to local maxima in precip. As the trough swings through Sunday, subsidence and drier air brings an end to the rain chances late Sunday with quieter conditions following on Monday and Tuesday with weak ridging. Temperatures on Saturday will be largely driven by the expectation of thick cloud cover and the rainfall chances which will likely lead to a pleasantly cool day. High temperatures likely are limited to the 60s and low 70s in areas of clouds and rain with 80s and 90s focused along the Rio Grande. A rapid rebound come son Thursday with clearing skies in the afternoon allowing for highs in the 80s for most. Conditions stay seasonably warm on Monday and Tuesday with the upper ridge before the next cold front looks to arrive sometime in the middle part of the week. -Munyan && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 115 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 MVFR CIGs have moved into MAF and will soon impact most if not all of the sites by 12Z. All TAF sites except FST are expected to see the CIGs rise to VFR 18-00Z. VIS will remain unrestricted. Easterly winds will occasionally gust. Hennig && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 311 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Near-critical conditions have developed this afternoon primarily across the western high terrain where very dry and breezy conditions linger. Fortunately, a cold front sweeps into the region this evening, brining much better moisture into the area and some relief to fire weather conditions. Rain and thunderstorm chances overspread the region Saturday into Sunday, with the hope that wetting rains can bring some much-needed relief to the ERCs which are exceeding the 75th percentile for a majority of the area. Dry air and elevated fire weather may return out west for Sunday. -Munyan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 59 68 58 79 / 20 80 40 60 Carlsbad 58 71 58 86 / 40 70 30 10 Dryden 64 77 66 90 / 40 60 50 20 Fort Stockton 62 75 63 89 / 40 80 40 20 Guadalupe Pass 55 69 56 78 / 40 70 30 0 Hobbs 55 66 55 82 / 30 80 40 20 Marfa 54 81 52 84 / 40 70 40 10 Midland Intl Airport 59 68 58 84 / 30 80 40 30 Odessa 60 68 60 84 / 30 80 40 30 Wink 61 73 61 89 / 40 80 40 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...10