Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 230335 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1035 PM CDT Wed Sep 22 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Wed Sep 22 2021

Another picture perfect September day is ongoing across the Upper
Mississippi Valley as we welcome the fall equinox. Unlike yesterday
where we had a sky full of fair weather cumulus, clouds of any kind
are hard to come by from west central Wisconsin all the way to
Montana. After a chilly start this morning with many locales dipping
into the upper 30s and low 40s, we are on track to see highs in the
low 70s across western Minnesota with upper 60s elsewhere.
Temperatures are some 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday at this
time, primarily across western and central Minnesota, as a 500mb
ridge slowly works eastward. RH values have dropped to 20 to 30
percent over western Minnesota, but with light and variable winds,
fire weather is not a concern.

Overnight lows will not be quite as cold with warmer air advecting
into the region through the day tomorrow. Expecting the majority of
the CWA to crack 70 tomorrow with mid 70s out west. Winds will
continue to be light and variable before increasing and becoming
southerly ahead of an approaching cold front Thursday afternoon. Low
chances for PoPs associated with this front first appear in the
forecast late Thursday night, but the highest chances will hold off
until Friday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Wed Sep 22 2021

The aforementioned cold front will sweep across Minnesota early
Friday morning followed by a brief cool down before temperatures
warm to just above seasonable norms. Scattered showers are possible
ahead of the cold front Friday morning with the highest chances
north of I-94. Moisture is really lacking with this system, so
expect any rain that does fall to be light with total QPF amounts of
only a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch. There`s not much in the
way of instability, so not anticipating any thunder. Showers will
end and skies will gradually clear behind the front Friday afternoon
with northwesterly winds bringing in a quick shot of cool, dry air
to start the weekend.

The remainder of the long term period looks to be dry and we`ll see
our temps warm from Sunday onward. Would not be surprised to see
areas along the Buffalo Ridge reach 80 Sunday through the middle of
next week with mid 70s elsewhere. Looking ahead through the end of
the month, the Climate Prediction Center`s 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day
outlooks have high chances for above average temperatures to
continue along with drier than normal conditions. For reference,
late September normals are in the mid 60s with low to mid 40s


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Wed Sep 22 2021

Clear skies through the period with light winds. Some patchy fog
could develop over western WI late tonight.

KMSP...No concerns.

FRI...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind S 5kts bcmg NW 10-15kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind WNW 10-15kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts.




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