Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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046 FXUS63 KMPX 112333 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 633 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe/extreme geomagnetic storm continues tonight, but increased mid level cloud cover will make viewing a little less vibrant than last night. - Sunny and warm on Sunday with in the 80s. - Widespread rain chances return Wednesday through next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 342 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...Early morning satellite imagery showed clear skies and light westerly winds across Minnesota, with northwest winds and a few cumulus clouds over Wisconsin. Further upstream, some thin cirrus was located across the Dakotas and southern Canada, and this is forecast to move overhead later tonight. With another display of aurora on tap for tonight, the high clouds could limit the vibrancy a bit as opposed to last night. On Sunday, southwest winds ahead of an approaching cold front will allow temperatures to warm into the 80s. The front is forecast to move through during the afternoon and evening. This front will pass through dry, but there is a small chance for showers and thunderstorms across southern/eastern MN and western WI. The lack of instability is the limiting factor in the very low risk for severe weather. The SPC Day2 outlook has general thunder forecast, with a sliver of Marginal touching far eastern Rusk/Chippewa/Eau Claire counties. On Monday this cold front will stall out to the south, keeping most of the region north of I-90 dry through at least Tuesday. On Wednesday, a shortwave trough will approach from the west, and this will be the focus for a rather prolonged period of rain chances. Based on the ensemble guidance, most if not all locations will see rain from Wednesday through Thursday, with smaller chances continuing into next weekend. The severe weather risk appears low with this system. Mid level lapse rates will only be on the order of 6 to 7C/km, and most likely only a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE. Temperatures will be seasonable, with highs in the 70s and lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 633 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 VFR with just some high cirrus clouds for most and a little dirunal cumulus over western MN and western WI. Some increase in cloud coverage overnight from SKC/FEW to SCT, but should remain VFR. Winds overnight should be light and shift to the south. Winds will shift on Sunday back to the west with some gusts up around 20 knots. There will be a chance for showers or storms in the afternoon/evening Sunday. Mainly southern MN into western WI (MKT/EAU best shot). KMSP... VFR through the period, although some increased sky coverage expected tonight. Winds will shift to the south tonight and then to the west on Sunday. Chance for some afternoon/evening showers/storms, but the best chances appear south of the airport. So have opted to keep mention out of the TAFs for now. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Wind N 10-15 kts. TUE...VFR. Wind E at 5-10 kts. WED...VFR becoming MVFR/RA. Wind S 10-20 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JRB AVIATION...NDC