389
FXUS63 KMPX 280142
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
842 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are producing small hail
  and frequent lightning this afternoon across central and
  southern MN. Brief funnel clouds have been reported at times
  as well.

- Things become fairly quiet with seasonable temperatures and
  the next chance for widespread rain arriving near the end of
  the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 831 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

With today`s shortwave exiting southeast MN, the loss of daytime
heating, and the fact that we`ve already consumed a good deal of
our instability earlier in the day, shower intensity and
coverage has been rapidly diminishing in the last hour as
expected. We don`t have to wait long for the next shortwave,
which is already pushing into northern NoDak. This wave will be
working through our MN portion of the forecast area late tonight
through Tuesday morning. Given what just happened earlier in the
day, there will be less moisture and instability to work with
for this wave, but we should still see scattered showers work
across the area through the morning as this initial part of the
next shortwave works through. For Tuesday afternoon, we`ll have
cyclonic flow aloft, with one more piece of shortwave energy
heading into western WI, which will support another round of
scattered showers and storms. Highest confidence in afternoon
showers occurring is for east of I-35, but several of the CAMs
show showers extending back across much of central MN, so have
expanded 20% pops back west a ways for Tuesday afternoon. After
this wave on Tuesday, we get a break from precip Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

A broken line of thunderstorms has tracked through portions of south-
central Minnesota already this afternoon, resulting in multiple
reports of half-inch or smaller hail. A broader area of scattered
showers/storms encompasses much of central and southern Minnesota
behind the aforementioned line. Hail and lightning with these cells
are much more sporadic and limited compared to the broken line. This
whole smattering of storms will continue to move southeastward this
afternoon in tandem with the exiting surface low pressure system.
Brief funnel clouds, and a weak landspout or two, are possible with
these storms, especially along the boundary associated with the
occluded low. SPC`s mesoscale analysis page highlights increasing
values of the non-supercell tornado parameter, pushing above 6 for
areas near the MN/SoDak/NoDak border. Any severe potential should
diminish early this evening, and scattered showers/storms will
gradually taper off into tonight.

A secondary, and more disorganized shortwave will eject down over
the Great Lakes region tomorrow, bringing a chance (30-50%) of rain
for areas along and east of I-35. Storm total QPF will be light and
while a rumble or two of thunder is not out of the question,
anything severe is unlikely.

Surface high pressure will move in Wednesday morning, resulting in a
a couple of nice days with mostly sunny skies and light winds.
Temperatures are expected to generally trend upwards for the near
future, with persistent highs in the 80s possible by the start of
next week. Lows will also be trending up after Tuesday night, with
low 60s possible heading into early next week.

Nearing the end of this week, a broad upper-level trough
pattern will slide eastward from the Pacific NW bringing off-
and-on chances for showers/storms through the weekend. Any
severe threat looks to stay further west, or is too low for
predictability at this time. Long-term models generally show a
large positive 500hPa height anomaly building over the western
half of the CONUS by early next week, supporting the idea of a
general upward trend in temps and a potentially less active
period of weather ahead.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 622 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Shortwave number 1 is now moving into southeast MN, with the
next on deck already dropping out of Canada and into northern
NoDak. As the first wave continues to sag southeast, we`ll see
occasional pop-up showers through 3z, but we`ve pretty much
consumed the available instability for any storms, so a rapid
demise in the showers is expected as the move into places that
have already seen rain. Wave number 2 won`t have as much
moisture to work with, but will have the potential for some
scattered showers tonight through Tue afternoon, with the
greatest likelihood of precip residing at RNH/EAU. The HRRR
provides a reasonable expectation for what this second
shortwave will be able to do. For cigs, did remove any MVFR
mention this period. Occasional MVFR cigs will be possible with
any showers, but on the whole, VFR clouds will dominate.

KMSP...Still a few showers to contend with, but seeing how the
last round of rain knocked temps back into the 50s, activity
back over Wright county will struggle to make it all the way
over to MSP. Next round of showers will be more of the hit-or-
miss variety. There will be an initial chance for shra 12z-17z
as the shortwave is moving in, with afternoon pop up showers not
out of the question as well.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts becoming SE.
THU...VFR. Wind SE 10-15 kts.
FRI...Mainly VFR. Chance -SHRA/MVFR. Wind S 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MPG
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...MPG