Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 251149 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
549 AM MDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Widespread MVFR/IFR cigs will continue through the morning hours
primarily from the east slopes of the central mountain chain ewd,
impacting KTCC, KLVS and KROW. Gradual improvement to VFR is
forecast between 16-19Z underneath dry northwest flow aloft. VFR
condtions will continue at all terminals tonight.



.PREV DISCUSSION...228 AM MDT Wed Apr 25 2018...
A cold front has invaded eastern and central New Mexico, spreading low
clouds over the eastern slopes of the central mountain chain and also
over much of the eastern plains. These clouds will gradually erode
away through the morning and early afternoon hours. High temperatures
will run 5 to 15 degrees below normal in eastern New Mexico today
while the western areas of the state remain near to slightly above
average. A disturbance aloft will dive out of the northern Rockies
and into the Great Plains on Thursday, and this will usher another
front into the eastern plains of the state with breezy to windy
conditions accompanying. A stray shower or thunderstorm will be
possible near and ahead of the front, but widespread rainfall is not
anticipated. Gusty winds will spread into the Rio Grande valley
Thursday night as the front advances westward. Modest moisture will
work into western New Mexico on Friday before spreading into central
areas of the state on Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible then.


Gusty winds will continue to decrease in speed here in the Rio Grande
valley and also in the east central plains as the surface gradient
slowly relaxes. The canopy of low clouds is expanding over much of
the eastern half of the state in the wake of the front, and these
will slowly burn off into the late morning to early afternoon hours.
There is a very low probability for a stray shower near the central
mountain chain, and possibly a virga shower around the Continental
Divide today.

Forecast models still advertise another upper level short wave trough
playing a role in our Thursday weather, although its track does
appear a bit displaced farther east than what previous runs showed.
Nonetheless, as it races into the central plains of the nation, it
will quickly drive another front toward NM. The front is still
forecast to arrive into the northern and eastern zones by mid to late
afternoon Thursday. This northerly wind shift will stunt an
otherwise warmer trend to the temperatures, with the eastern plains
remaining just a few degrees below average. Cannot rule out a rogue
shower or thunderstorm, mostly along and just east of the central
mountain chain Thursday afternoon, and once again, sufficient mid
level moisture will be present for a low threat of a dry thunderstorm
near the Continental Divide.

Precipitation chances are still expected to increase during the
Friday through Sunday time frame, however there is still concerns
over the moisture return and how fast models seem to be bringing it
into the state. As the upper level ridge axis stretches over the
Rockies on Friday, a deep Pacific low will move near the northern CA
coast. This is projected to induce a southerly boundary layer flow
in many NM zones, steering some pooled moisture into the state. The
GFS remains an outlying and aggressive member with regards to the
moisture advection and consequentially the convective QPF over
western NM on Friday. The current forecast carries isolated
thunderstorm chances Friday and Friday night. Storm chances will be
spreading into central zones Saturday and Saturday night with a
slight uptick in coverage as the Pacific low moves farther inland,
advecting a southern-most vort lobe into the Great Basin. Increasing
southwesterlies would then be steered into NM by Sunday, shoving
storm chances into eastern NM. Have kept POPs mostly isolated on
Sunday with concerns of a mid level dry slot overtaking any moisture
that comes into the forecast area.

A secondary centroid or vort lobe of the Pacific low would likely
hang back near the west coast on Monday of next week, but forecast
models are not at a consensus on how this will evolve. Unfortunately,
this will keep low confidence for precipitation prospects, and
likely a rising threat for stronger winds Monday, Tuesday, and
perhaps Wednesday of next week.



A backdoor cold front will continue pushing westward to the AZ line
this morning. Low clouds from the east slopes of the central
mountain chain eastward will gradually dissipate between late
morning and early afternoon. High temperatures across the eastern
half or so of the state will remain below seasonal averages today
and through the remainder of the work week as another strong
backdoor cold front moves in Thursday afternoon and Thursday night.

By Friday, winds at the surface and near mountain top level turn
southerly and begin to draw up moisture from northern Mexico.
Precipitation chances increase across western New Mexico Friday
afternoon along with the potential for thunderstorms, a few possibly
dry. A few mainly showers are forecast to continue across western NM
Friday night. Shower and thunderstorms chances shift east and
northeast Saturday, with the best chances forecast for the mid RGV,
north-central mountains, and northeast quarter. Models agree that
drier air will move in on strengthening southwest flow for Sunday.

Another upper-level trough will take shape to the west or northwest
of NM early next week. Increasing southwest winds along with a very
dry airmass could lead to critical fire weather condtions Monday and
Tuesday afternoons, especially east.






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